JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 4:38 PM EDT659
FXUS63 KJKL 212038
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return late tonight and
Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
- Lower humidity and dry weather arrives by late Tuesday and lasts
through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
Zonal flow aloft is present from the mid Mississippi Valley
eastward across the Appalachians late today, but with a wave
(associated with convection) present over the mid Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, a weak, amorphous pattern is over our
area with an old stalled frontal boundary decaying, and a surface
low is over the mid Mississippi Valley in association with the
wave.
The upper level wave and the surface low will move east and bring
a warm/moist advection regime eastward into our area tonight into
Monday. As this happens, the convection to our west is expected to
head east as an MCS, probably arriving here in a weakening stage
overnight. Instability and shear look modest, but if an MCS is
well organized as it approaches, it could still be enough to bring
some strong winds. Convection may last into Monday morning, and
clouds and possible precip will likely limit destabilization on
Monday. However, models do suggest additional precip ahead of the
surface system's cold front on Monday, especially in southeast KY.
Depending on instability, some strong storms can't be ruled out.
PW should reach near 2 inches, which would also pose a threat of
heavy rainfall. All of this winds down behind the cold front on
Monday night as modestly cooler and drier air arrives.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
Monday evening a cold front should be slowly progressing southeast
of the forecast area. As a result lingering showers and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms may exist Tuesday morning across the
southeastern portions of the forecast areas. Aside from this area of
lingering showers and thunderstorms the rest of the area can expect
a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures warming into the upper 70s
to low 80s by the afternoon.
High pressure builds into the area through Tuesday afternoon
allowing for clouds to slowly dissipate. Conditions will be primed
across Eastern Kentucky for fog development Tuesday evening, as a
weak pressure gradient, clearing skies, calm winds and expected dew
point depressions within 3 degrees, will all culminate into
temperatures cooling into the low to mid 50s in the valleys, and
upper 60s to low 60s along ridge tops. Patchy fog with areas of
river valley fog are expected before mixing out Wednesday morning.
Analyzing models 500-mb heights on Wednesday morning, An area of low
pressure enters the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region with
a cold front trailing southwest into the Central Plains.
Additionally, a secondary shortwave over the Oklahoma area works
around a broad area of high pressure over Central Mexico, south of
the Four Corners region. Eastern Kentucky will looks to remain dry
Wednesday, with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Clouds are expected to increase heading into
Thursday, as the cold front from the Great Lakes low progresses into
the Ohio Valley, and is modeled just north of Kentucky Thursday
morning. Additionally, a stationary boundary is modeled across the
Southeast (just south of Tennessee). This will create isolated shower
and thunderstorm chances Thursday.
Due to the fact there isn't much forcing across the Southeast US,
forward progression of the Ohio valley cold front slows. By Friday
morning the cold front is modeled across the forecast area leading to
scattered shower and storm chances. Heading into the weekend, models
and ensembles depict ridging across the Central Plains on Saturday,
due to a strong upper level low entering the Pacific Northwest. A
shortwave trapped under the ridge is expected to propagate east into
the Ohio Valley Saturday and Sunday. THis keeps scattered shower and
storm chances in the forecast through Sunday.
Thursday through Sunday, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid to upper 80s during the day, and mid to upper 60s at night. A
warming trend looks likely, with the CPC highlighting Kentucky in
their 6-10 day outlook with a 40-50% probability of above normal
temperatures through the 30th of June.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR conditions will persist until late tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to arrive from the west or northwest
overnight and possibly persist into the day Monday. There is still
uncertainty concerning the evolution of the convection upstream,
and thus exactly how it will effect the JKL forecast area. A
generalized forecast has IFR conditions at times during the
precip.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 4:38 PM EDT---------------
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