MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 12:54 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...038
FXUS64 KMOB 150554
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue the first half of
the week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches,
becoming a HIGH risk on Wednesday.
- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly
for today into midweek bringing the potential for heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
A cloudy and rainy week lies ahead as our region lies at the base
of a longwave trough extending from the Rockies to the East Coast
into midweek. Although the trough retreats northward midweek as
an upper ridge builds over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic,
an upper low pressure area will move slowly northeastward along
the Texas coast Tuesday and Wednesday before lessoning to a
shortwave over the lower Mississippi River on Thursday. A
continuous fetch of deep moisture will persist through Friday
with PWATs mostly ranging from 2.2 to 2.4 inches.
Mid/upper level impulses and shortwave energy will move through
the base of the longwave trough through Tuesday, and then along
the eastern periphery of the shortwave through through Thursday.
We will continue to focus our key messaging on the potential of
localized flash flooding as much of the area remains under a
Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance Monday and
Tuesday, followed by a Marginal Risk Wednesday and Thursday.
Periods of heavy rainfall are possible at times with widespread
total rainfall amounts inland areas ranging from 2.5 to 4.0
inches. Locally higher total up to 6 inches are possible across
our far northern zones. Instances of flash flooding will occur
where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high
precipitation rates occur. With the increase in clouds and rain,
temperatures will not be nearly as hot with highs today mainly in
the 80s, highs Tuesday in the middle 70s to middle 80s, followed
by the middle to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
General VFR conditions will drop to low/mid MVFR, especially the
northern half of the forecast area, as a cold front sags south
towards, then stalls near Highway 84. Showers and thunderstorms
will increase in coverage as the front approaches, bringing low
drops in conditions to low end MVFR/IFR possible in the stronger
storms. Ahead of the front, south to southwesterly winds of 5 to
10 knots are expected. Winds shift to northwest to north north of
the boundary. /16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 87 72 81 72 / 70 70 80 80
Pensacola 90 76 84 75 / 60 60 90 80
Destin 89 76 85 76 / 60 50 80 80
Evergreen 85 70 78 70 / 80 70 80 70
Waynesboro 80 70 77 70 / 80 80 90 50
Camden 81 69 76 69 / 90 80 90 80
Crestview 89 71 82 71 / 80 60 80 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 12:54 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...---------------
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