LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 12, 6:38 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...404
FXUS64 KLIX 122338
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
638 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower and mid
90s through Sunday with heat index values approaching 105
degrees. This is our first heat spell of the summer, so please
use caution if outdoors for an extended period of time.
- A weak cold front will slowly move into the area during the
first half of next week leading to higher shower and
thunderstorm chances. This has correlated to a higher Flash
Flood risk starting Monday with a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of
5) for Flash Flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Very similar conditions to this afternoon are anticipated for
Saturday and Sunday as a broad and deep ridge axis remains
centered over the Gulf South. This will lead to fairly typical
weather conditions for mid-June with highs climbing into the low
to mid 90s over inland areas and the upper 80s and lower 90s along
the coast. Heat index values will climb to between 100 and 105
each day, and much of the area will be in moderate to major
HeatRisk criteria. Although the heat index will remain below
official advisory criteria levels, this first big heatwave of the
Summer season and the lack of acclimation to the heat could lead
to increased heat illnesses in the area. Stay hydrated and take
frequent breaks in an air conditioned or shaded area if you are
participating in any outdoor activities or work this weekend.
Beyond the heat, PWATS will be near average at around 1.7 to 1.8
inches and this will support scattered to broken cumulus
development each day. However, the strong ridging aloft will
continue to warm the mid-levels leading to weaker mid-level lapse
rates of between 5.4 to 5.6 C/km and lower mixed layer CAPE values
of 600 to 700 J/KG. This will greatly limit overall convective
potential through the weekend. The most likely ares to experience
convection will be wear weak boundaries like the seabreeze and
lakebreeze or outflow boundaries interact as increased low level
forcing may be able to overcome the weak cap aloft.
As we move into Monday and Monday night, conditions will quickly
change as a plume of deep tropical moisture feeds into the region
from the southwest. PWATS will surge to between the 90th
percentile and daily max on Monday with readings of 2.1 to 2.2
inches expected. This increased moisture will correspond with the
ridge axis shifting to the south as a broad longwave trough and an
associated surface frontal boundary begin to push into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Increasing positive vorticity advection and
more favorable jet dynamics aloft will support increasing deep
layer lift across the forecast area by Monday afternoon with the
greatest forcing occurring closer to the front in southwest
Mississippi and parts of metro Baton Rouge. A fairly sharp
gradient will be in place for PoPs that will have categorical PoP
over the northern third of the forecast area and only scattered
PoP along the Louisiana coast. This is entirely due to expected
moisture pooling along the approaching frontal boundary as it
slowly drifts into southwest Mississippi by Monday afternoon.
Given the high PWATS in place and very efficient warm rain
processes aloft as noted by a -5C 500mb temperature, heavy
rainfall will be a concern as we move into Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will be
possible, and the orientation of the mid-level wind field is
supportive of training and back building convective activity along
the frontal boundary. Rainfall totals Monday into Monday night
could be in the 4 to 6 inch range in a few localized spots. A
flood watch will likely be issued for northern portions of the
forecast area later this weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Tuesday will see a continuation of the heavy rainfall threat as
the frontal boundary slowly sinks southward across the forecast
area. 500mb temperatures will remain near -5C indicating that warm
rain processes will continue and that rainfall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour will persist as PWATS stay above the daily max
values for this time of year. The wind field will be little
changed, so continued training and backbuilding of thunderstorms
along the frontal boundary will continue to be concern, and an
additional 4 to 6 inches of rain could occur in localized spots. A
few locations could see between 10 and 15 inches of rain by
Wednesday morning based on the slow moving nature of the front,
favorable wind field for training storms, and the very moist
airmass in place.
Wednesday itself will be a day of transition as the front begins
to dissipate over the area and the greatest forcing aloft starts
to shift to the east along with the parent longwave trough axis.
However, deep tropical moisture will continue to linger over the
area with PWATS still near 2 inches or between the 75th and 90th
percentiles for this time of year. Although forcing will be
weaker, highly efficient warm rain processes will continue, and
that will keep the threat of heavy rainfall in place. Additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches and rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches per hour are possible. The threat of backbuilding storms
will be lower as the wind field becomes less favorable, but
locally heavier rainfall and already saturated soils will keep a
flash flooding threat in place through Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will be below average from Monday through Wednesday
due to the extensive rainfall and cloud cover over the region.
Thursday will finally see a return to more typical Summer
conditions as a mid to upper level ridge axis builds over the
forecast area in the wake of the departing longwave trough axis.
PWATS will fall to between the 50th and 75th percentiles and the
lingering front will fully wash out by Thursday. Convective
potential will fall back to more seasonal levels of 40 to 50
percent as scattered afternoon showers and storms fire up along
weak mesoscale boundaries. There will continue to be a small flash
flooding concern due to saturated soils from the prior days of
rainfall. Temperatures will also return to more typical levels
around 90 degrees with heat index readings rising back to between
100 and 105 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
All forecast terminals were VFR at forecast issuance. Earlier
convection has been dissipating pretty quickly in the last 30-45
minutes, but will hold onto VCTS at KMCB and VCSH at KBTR and KHDC
for a couple hours, although that might be too long. Can't rule
out some fog around sunrise Saturday in areas that got rain this
afternoon. At most terminals, VFR conditions are expected through
the period. Very little, if any, convection is expected Saturday
afternoon, and most probably, only scattered cumulus development.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
A broad area of high pressure will remain centered over the
eastern Gulf and Florida through the weekend and into early next
week, promoting a persistent south-southeast wind of 10 to 15
knots across the coastal waters through early next week. These
winds will produce seas of 2 to 4 feet in the open Gulf waters and
1 to 2 feet in the sounds and tidal lakes. Onshore winds are
expected to increase by mid-week to near small craft advisory
range as the pressure gradient across the Gulf increases due to a
strengthening high over the eastern Gulf and Florida.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 12, 6:38 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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