Please read the newsposts on the homepage! Some are rules some are archives from past events.
600 FXUS64 KLIX 011856AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1256 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 - A Light to moderate rain will spread across the area today and continue through tonight. Most places are forecast to see between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rain. Isolated thunderstorms could result in locally higher amounts in the 1-2 inch range. - Much colder air will move into the region following this system, with the coldest temperatures forecast Wednesday morning. Another light freeze is forecast along/north of the I-10/12, with generally 3-7 hours of subfreezing temperatures forecast. - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in the 2-3 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated flood threats will continue to be refined. &&.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025Light to moderate rain and a few embedded thunderstorms isbeginning to spread into northwestern portions of the area, andwill continue to spread across the remainder of the area as theafternoon and evening progress. This is in response to anapproaching upper level trough and developing surface low over thenorthern Gulf.The surface low is forecast to remain south of local land areas,limiting the threat of severe weather as any thunderstorms willlikely not be surface-based. Rainfall totals through tonight aregenerally forecast in the 0.5-1.5" range. However, a few thunderstorms could result in locally higher amounts. Given howdry the local area has been, not overly concerned about the threatof flash flooding. However, if a couple thunderstorms move overany given area in relatively short succession there is at least alow-end threat of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding.This will be highly dependent on rainfall rates.The low should be east of the local area by about midnight tonightas the upper level trough axis approaches. In the wake of thissystem, colder high pressure will once again move into the areabeginning Tuesday, with afternoon highs struggling to reach themid-50s.&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025Tuesday night will be the coldest night as the axis of the surfacehigh pressure moves over the area. The combination of clear skiesand light to calm winds will allow for efficient radiativecooling and temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. The current forecast calls for at least a couple hours of freezing temperatures for most places along/north of the I-10/12 corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Most of these areas have already experienced two freezes this season, but we'll need to take a look to see if any of the more western areas around Baton Rouge require freeze headlines.Wednesday itself will be a day of transition as the surface highshifts eastward and winds return to and easterly and thensoutheasterly direction by Wednesday night. The onshore winds willgradually bring moisture back into the area, ahead of yet anotherstorm system.This second storm system will begin to affect the area Thursdaywith a similar setup to what we're seeing today. A deformationzone will set up stretching from a cutoff low near Baja across theGulf coast and into the middle eastern seaboard as embedded andpositively tilted shortwave disturbances move through the overalllongwave trough dominating the CONUS. The local area will remainin this favorable area for rain and isolated to scattered embeddedthunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. The threat of severe weather currently appears limited. There could be a brief window for stronger storms Friday during the day,but it will depend greatly on the position of the surface low andassociated warm front. Currently the warm front does not look likeit will move very far inland, which will keep most thunderstormselevated. However, if the low and warm front move farther north,then the thunderstorm threat could increase as storms become moresurface-based. Regardless of the severe weather threat, this system looks like itwill bring continued much-needed rain to the area. Two-day totalsare currently forecast in the 2-3.5 inch range. However, any thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavier rain.Model forecast soundings indicate that precipitable water willhave rebounded to the 1.5-1.75 inch range by Thursday morning,which is above the 90th percentile and approaching the dailymaximum observed value. This means any thunderstorms will becapable of producing efficient rainfall. Wherever thesethunderstorms move, the higher rainfall rates could lead toponding and at least a low-end threat of flash flooding. Thespecific locations that receive the heaviest rain will depend onwhere these thunderstorms move and for the time being, a broadMarginal risk appears warranted to cover the heavy rain/flashflood threat Thursday into Friday.Going into the weekend, there is uncertainty in whether the areawill dry out or remain in an area of scattered showers andisolated storms as continued fast-moving disturbances move throughthe overall troughy pattern in the upper levels. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025An approaching low pressure system will bring widespread showersand a few embedded thunderstorms to the area through tonight.Ample low level moisture will result in generally IFR conditionsat most terminals through Tuesday morning before conditions beginto improve as dry high pressure builds into the area.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025A Gulf low will approach the area later today, with gradient winds of 15-20 knots and widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms. An exercise caution headline remains in effect through this evening. In the wake of the low, winds will become north-northwesterly and will strengthen into the 20-25kt range, with seas responding accordingly. A small craft advisory remains in effect from late tonight through mid afternoon Tuesday. Winds and seas will ease late Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area. Another storm system will begin to affect the area Thursday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms through Friday night. Additional headlines may be necessary during this time frame.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 37 48 29 57 / 100 0 0 0 BTR 39 52 32 61 / 100 0 0 0 ASD 43 55 30 61 / 90 10 0 0 MSY 47 56 41 64 / 90 0 0 0 GPT 46 57 34 59 / 90 10 0 0 PQL 45 58 29 60 / 80 20 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...DMLONG TERM....DMAVIATION...DMMARINE...DM
