MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 5:26 AM CST ...New AVIATION...925
FXUS64 KMOB 301126
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
- Strong offshore flow may create hazardous conditions for small
craft over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into Tuesday.
- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
expected for Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
An upper trof progresses across the interior eastern states
through Sunday night, with an associated surface low meanwhile
bringing a cold front through the forecast area during the day on
Sunday. Instability looks to remain limited, with just showers
expected with the frontal passage. Have gone with mostly chance
to likely pops for Sunday, with the higher pops over southeast
Mississippi and interior portions of southwest Alabama. Slight
chance to chance pops follow for Sunday night. A positively
tilted upper trof meanwhile advances across the western states on
Sunday then takes on a more meridional orientation while
traversing the central states Monday into Monday night. The upper
trof weakens while continuing across the eastern states Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A surface low develops over the northwest Gulf
on Monday and then is expected to move across the portion of the
forecast area east of I-65 Monday night before continuing well
away from the area. This trajectory and the short turn around time
from Sunday's frontal passage will limit the potential for
instability to improve much before this system moves through. That
said, there's still uncertainty with the trajectory of the
surface low, and it's possible that sufficient instability could
be realized over the western Florida panhandle and possibly
coastal Alabama to warrant concern. Will continue to monitor at
this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops on Monday, then
categorical pops follow for Monday night. Rain chances taper to
dry conditions from west to east on Tuesday.
Dry conditions follow for Wednesday while another positively
tilted upper trof advances into the western half of the CONUS. The
upper trof looks to split substantially, with a portion
continuing quickly across the northeast states Thursday while the
remainder slowly advances into the central states on Friday. It's
possible that a cut off upper low may even manage to form near
the Baja area. This all makes for a rather uncertain upper and
surface pattern going into Friday and Saturday. That said, there
appears to be a general consensus for another surface low to
develop over the northwest Gulf Thursday into Thursday night which
then moves across the marine area or possibly the southern
portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday night. Have gone
with chance pops for Thursday then likely pops follow for Friday
with chance pops for Saturday. Will continue to monitor. Overnight
lows tend to remain above seasonable values through the period
except for Tuesday night when lows range from the mid/upper 20s
well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast. Daytime highs will
be near seasonable values except for Tuesday through Thursday when
highs tend to range from the 50s well inland to lower/mid 60s at
the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through
Monday, with a high risk for Monday night and Tuesday. A moderate
risk follows for Tuesday night, then a low risk is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
VFR flight category prevails across the region this morning, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR flight category this afternoon and
locally IFR this evening. A cold front pushes across the area late
this afternoon into the evening, with winds shifting from
northeasterly to northerly. Winds this afternoon will also
increase in the wake of the front to near 10 knots gusting upwards
of 15 to 20 knots at times this evening. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Light to moderate easterly winds switch to the northeast on Sunday
as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong Sunday night then a southeasterly flow develops
on Monday. Winds become northwesterly late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A Small Craft
Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, possibly into the afternoon. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 69 50 66 49 / 40 20 50 90
Pensacola 71 56 69 55 / 30 20 50 90
Destin 71 56 70 58 / 30 30 50 90
Evergreen 68 45 66 47 / 40 30 50 90
Waynesboro 57 41 57 40 / 70 30 60 90
Camden 59 43 60 41 / 60 20 50 90
Crestview 72 51 68 53 / 30 30 40 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 5:26 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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