ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 6:44 AM EST066
FXUS61 KILN 261144
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
644 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cloudy, cold, and blustery day will be found after the passage of a
strong cold front early this morning. West-northwest wind will
subside some but still be noticeable through early Friday, as high
pressure finally builds in. The high will settle over the region
Saturday morning, with southerly flow finally kicking in and
moderating temperatures at least a little bit.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong, stacked low pressure system will track east through the
Great Lakes today and exit to the northeast tonight. Strong west
winds behind a cold front are expected and a wind advisory has been
hoisted for the northern 2/3 of CWA. Southern 2/6 isn't going to
fare that much better but will not reach the criteria needed for an
advisory.
Along with this wind will be temperatures falling steadily into the
30s. They'll be in the 30s all day west of I-75 and linger in the
lower 30s this afternoon. Over the Scioto Valley, temps near 50 at
daybreak will be near 40 by noon and solidly in the mid 30s by late
day.
Wind will not be as gusty overnight but remain close to 20 mph over
the northern 1/2 of CWA and 15-20 mph in the south. Overnight lows
will be from 25-30 under cloudy skies. Cloud cover will begin to
break up from the southwest late, only reaching the IN/KY/OH tri-
state by daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Skies will continue to clear from the southwest on Thursday but
should remain more cloudy than not for west central and central
Ohio through the period. Brisk west winds 15-20 mph will continue
through Thursday, keeping highs in the lower 30s for most of the
region, some upper 30s along and south of the Ohio River.
West winds will maintain a 10-15 mph speed overnight. Lows will be
pretty uniform and near 22 degrees.
Friday will see a gradient in the sky cover from generally clear in
nrn KY to mostly cloudy north and east of metro Columbus. Wind will
be a more reasonable 10-15 mph continuation from overnight and highs
will top out 30-35 across the region.
Wind finally begins to die down Friday night as high pressure builds
in from the northwest and settles over the CWA daybreak Saturday.
While not a radiational cooling night, lows will still fall to within
2-3 deg of 20, coolest in central Ohio and the Hocking Hills.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level energy ejecting sw from the nrn Rockies will help carve
an longer wave trough over the Midwest this weekend. On Sunday
morning, the trough axis will be near IL/IN and the energy will be
ejecting ne ahead of it. A surface low will coincide with the upper
level energy in the trough. Attm, it is expected to be near MO/IA/IL
Sat evening, near Lake Huron Sunday morning and ejecting ne
afterward. High pressure builds in behind it and remains the dominant
weather maker for the first half of next week.
Ahead of the low will be an increasing chance of precipitation. If
the precip occurs as early as Saturday, it will likely start as
snow. Trend is a later start but snow potential should be noted as
the weather type if weather occurs. By nighttime, pops increase ahead
of an approaching cold front. However, the region will be in the
warm sector overnight and any precip in the form of snow will mix
with and change to rain from sw-ne and being all rain by Sunday. As
the parent system moves quickly, so will the precip. Expect it to end
Sun morning.
However, ensemble hangs on to rain chances through the remainder of
the forecast which is plainly not a reasonable assumption. Confidence
in the expected pattern beyond Sunday is low but it does not warrant
precip through the forecast. And by Sun night, temps are such that if
precip were to occur it would be snow. My take is that the chance of
dry weather in any one period significantly outweighs the outlying
ensemble members showing precip but the forecast does not represent
that from Sun evening onward.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gusts 30-40kt are expected today, strongest to the north at DAY
where a stronger pressure gradient exists. Expect a 5-10kt decrease
in speed/gusts overnight.
MVFR Cloud bases should lift to VFR in the afternoon at CVG/LUK. At
DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK, they could waffle around the 3kft threshold of
MVFR/VFR this afternoon and evening but I did not prevail VFR until
05Z. Clouds should be scattering out at CVG/LUK around 06Z.
OUTLOOK...Winds gusts of 25-30kts likely Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for
INZ050-058-059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks/AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 6:44 AM EST---------------
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