JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 10:54 PM EST460
FXUS63 KJKL 260354
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1054 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
through Wednesday morning.
- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
- There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for Monday and
beyond. Some wintry precipitation is possible during the Monday
night to Tuesday timeframe.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
Latest obs are blended into the forecast but don't result in any
substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 753 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
Main changes in this update are for thunder tonight and POP
tonight into Wednesday. Latest NAM fcst soundings and instability
fcsts suggest any thunder would be limited to southeast KY early
this evening, but even there, radar trends suggest the threat is
fading. For POP, have incorporated latest model runs and radar
trends into the hourly fcsts. Showers are likely along and ahead
of a cold front for most of the forecast area tonight. A second
cold front will cut off precip on Wednesday as much cooler and
drier air arrives after fropa.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered near the IA
and MN border with an associated trough axis south through the
Plains. The shortwave trough that helped bring a steady round of
showers to the area during the morning to midday timeframe
continues to depart to the northeast although another shortwave
is nearing the Lower OH Valley at this time with the main trough
axis lingering further to the west. At the surface, an area of
low pressure was tracking across MI with the associated warm
front having lifted northeast to near the Tug Fork/WV border area
with the trailing cold front moving from western into Central KY
at this time. In the warm sector, temperatures have mainly risen
into the 60s, though some 50s were over the higher terrain above
2000 feet. Dewpoints generally range through the 50s. A few
showers or patchy light rain was occurring near and north of the
I-64 corridor at this point while additional showers were moving
across sections of eastern TN and SW VA not far from the KY
border.
This evening and tonight, the next shortwave trough should move
across eastern KY this evening while another shortwave the main
trough axis approach from the west and southwest as the night
progress as the upper level low moves to WI and nears the western
Great Lakes. The first low pressure system should continue across
sections of the Great Lakes to Ontario tonight with the trailing
cold front crossing eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the sfc
low nearer to the upper low will track to the western Great Lakes
tonight with the trailing cold front moving into across western
and central sections of the Commonwealth. This will keep the
potential for showers in the forecast this evening and tonight
with chances peaking as the first front and a disturbance pass
this evening and after a lull for part of the night, there may be
another peak late tonight into early Wednesday with the second
front.
Wednesday to Wednesday night, the upper low continues across MI
and the Central Great Lakes to near the Ontario and Quebec border
to end the period. To the south, an upper level trough should
extend south into the eastern Conus though the axis of the trough
should remain west of eastern KY. Cold air advection will occur
through the day on Wednesday behind the front and lows
tonight/early Wednesday may occur after sunrise Wednesday with
highs in the morning before temperatures fall into the 40s
areawide and into the 30s above 2500 feet. Shower chance should
diminish prior to midday on Wednesday. However, a secondary
disturbance moving through the trough along with some low level
moisture may result in enough low clouds or cumulus and
stratocumulus for some sprinkles or flurries by late afternoon or
early evening Wednesday with some flurries possible into
Wednesday night. Opted to go with a non diurnal temperature curve
through Wednesday evening and went with pops above the NBM PPI
for late Wednesday into Wednesday evening to account for recent
HRRR runs and some of the CAMS that have the potential for
sprinkles and flurries during that timeframe. Temperatures should
fall into the mid to upper 20s to around 30 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
The period begins Thanksgiving Day morning with a deep trough axis
over the Mid-Ohio Valley, with cold advection continuing through
the day and into Thursday night before ending by late Friday in
northwesterly flow aloft. This will mean temperatures struggling
to recover during the daytime hours both Thursday and Friday, even
under sunny skies, with lows falling into the upper teens to
lower 20s for most areas Thursday night. Surface high pressure
moves over the area Friday night, but by Saturday morning warm
advection is underway and cloud cover begins to gradually increase
from the west and continues through the day Saturday, allowing
for highs to recover into the 40s for highs.
A trough digging southeast through the Central Rockies and into the
center of the country Saturday on its way to the Great Lakes for
Sunday will push a cold front quickly eastward. The trough will be
able to pick up Gulf moisture and push it north into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valley, resulting in likely PoPs for Saturday night through
Sunday night, with temperatures warm enough for all rain with
temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. The WPC highlights the
greater Lake Cumberland region as being under the risk for heavy
rain during this time period, so this will be something we will be
monitoring for potential impacts.
Increasing uncertainty creeps into the forecast Monday and
especially beyond, mainly in association with a digging trough over
the Southwest CONUS that ejects east and northeast towards the
eastern half of the country towards Tuesday. The colder GFS, AI-
GFS and GEFS Ensemble Mean keep this wave weaker, more open and
progressive, and thus keeps a more suppressed and colder system
into the Tennessee/Cumberland Valley region and Southeast US,
which introduces some p-type concerns on the northwest side of the
precipitation shield which may include parts of eastern Kentucky.
On the other end of the spectrum is the ECMWF Operational and
ECMWF Ensemble Mean, which have a stronger shortwave with more
robust warm advection across our area. While the ECMWF and ECMWF
Ensemble Mean solutions suggest a higher chance for precipitation
across eastern Kentucky, it also brings warmer air and thus keeps
the hypothetical rain-snow line mostly if not entirely north of
the forecast area. The CMC Ensemble Mean is somewhere in between
these solutions. Of note, the NBM still has a very large
probabilistic temperature envelope for Monday into Tuesday of next
week, which conveys significant uncertainty in which scenario may
occur and thus potential p-type concerns. Thus, those interested
in the forecast for potential p-type concerns the early to middle
part of next week are encouraged to frequently monitor the
forecast through the remainder of this week into this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance, with
scattered showers. There will be two cold fronts which cross the
area from west to east during the TAF period, one tonight and one
on Wednesday morning. The greatest concentrations of showers
should be associated with each frontal passage. The first fropa
will bring an overall reduction to mainly MVFR conditions area
wide tonight. The second fropa will allow for improving conditions
as drier air begins moving in in its wake, with a return to VFR
conditions during the day Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 10:54 PM EST---------------
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