CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 11:41 PM EST956
FXUS61 KCLE 230441
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1141 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure departs as low pressure passes north of the
local area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night into Monday
before a potent low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes
region through the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Minor update to the forecast this evening as we are seeing some
light showers moving east across Lake Erie with the warm front.
Precipitation type is a little uncertain on the leading edge
where there may not be sufficient ice nuclei in the cloud for
snow. Most likely precipitation will struggle to reach the
ground as it moves east into the snowbelt counties, but do have
a rain/snow mix in the forecast. Temperatures have already hit
the low for tonight and will be warming but currently have a few
cooler sites towards Ashtabula or in the higher terrain where
temps will be sub freezing for another hour or two. Can not rule
out a few sprinkles or a very light shower where temperatures
are below freezing but expecting little to no impact given the
light nature of the precipitation and warming temperatures.
Previous discussion...
Dry conditions continue tonight under the ridge of high
pressure with overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The
ridge will push to east as an upper trough moves east across
the Great Lakes region. The upper trough will be accompanied by
a weak surface cold front that will push east across the local
area on Sunday. Both of these features should provide enough
support for a chance of rain/snow, primarily across extreme
portions of Northeast Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania early
Sunday morning. Rain/snow will transition to all rain after
sunrise on Sunday and will gradually diminish through Sunday
afternoon as another area of high pressure builds into the Ohio
Valley. Northwesterly winds may gust as high as 20-25 MPH at
times Sunday afternoon as lapse rates steepen behind the front.
High temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s Sunday afternoon
with overnight lows Sunday night falling into the upper 20s
areawide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will slowly push east through the short term
period with dry weather expected through Monday evening. The next
system will approach the region from the west Monday night. The
surface low looks to track north-northeast from the Central Plains
into the Northern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. Expect for
minimal impacts outside of some rain showers entering western zones
on Monday night. The main impacts come on Tuesday as more widespread
rain showers are expected across the region with total rainfall
amounts through Tuesday night of 0.25-0.50". High temperatures
will warm to above normal values Monday and Tuesday in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The aforementioned potent low pressure system is expected to drag a
strong cold front across the area on Wednesday, ushering in a much
cooler pattern through the long term and the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend. As the front pushes east any remaining rain showers will
transition to snow while surface winds and wind gusts increase along
the front. There is increasing potential for accumulating lake
effect snowfall to develop across the eastern Great Lakes behind
the cold front early Thursday. Still a fair amount of
uncertainty when it comes to overall snowfall amounts and lake
effect snow band placement with this system. Will continue to
monitor the evolution of the system and lake effect snow
potential during this timeframe given the heightened impact on
holiday travel. It will be cooler through the long term behind
the cold front with highs in the low to mid 30s each afternoon
and overnight lows dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A few light showers will be in the vicinity of ERI at the start
of the period as a warm front continues to move east. Precipitation
has been spotty at the surface but a brief rain/snow mix is
possible. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected overnight with a
mid-level cloud deck that will clear from west to east. A
mostly dry cold front will sweep east across the area between
09-14Z. Western terminals are expected to remain VFR but a brief
period of MVFR is possible for terminals east of a line from
CLE-CAK between 12-14Z. ERI is most likely to see a MVFR cloud
deck after 13Z, lifting to VFR but persisting into the
afternoon. Can not rule out a brief shower but potential looks
limited.
Southwest winds will increase overnight into the 6-10 knot
range, than shift to the west with the passage of the cold
front. Most terminals, especially eastern ones will see wind
gusts to 20-25 knots with the passage of the cold front on
Sunday morning. Breezy conditions will continue in the east
through late afternoon with winds dropping off to 10 knots or
less towards the end of the TAF period.
Outlook...VFR is favored through Monday before non-VFR chances
return Monday night through Wednesday. Non VFR continues with
chances for snow in the snowbelt on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Active marine conditions will return to Lake Erie Sunday as a
clipper system moves from the northern Great Lakes tonight through
the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Light and variable
winds this evening will become SW and increase to 10-15 knots behind
a warm front tonight, before quickly turning W and further
increasing to 15-25 knots Sunday morning behind the cold front. W to
WNW winds of 15-25 knots are expected to continue through the day,
diminishing to 5-10 knots Sunday night while turning NW. We hoisted
Small Craft Advisories beginning at 10Z Sunday from Vermilion to
Geneva and 12Z from The Islands to Vermilion, as well as from Geneva
to Ripley. Winds will diminish faster between the Islands and
Vermilion, so this will be a short headline, expiring at 18Z Sunday
there, but the longer lasting winds and waves farther east will keep
the headline going through 03Z Monday from Vermilion to Geneva and
05Z Monday from Geneva to Ripley. Wave heights will peak at 4 to 8
feet late Sunday morning through the afternoon in the central and
eastern basins.
The lighter winds Sunday night will continue through Monday, but
becoming S as high pressure shifts from the Ohio Valley to the Mid
Atlantic coast. These S winds will increase to 10-20 knots Monday
night and Tuesday as low pressure lifts into the Upper Midwest. This
low will continue to deepen Tuesday night and Wednesday as it lifts
into the northern Great Lakes. This system will drag down arctic air
later Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day, so it will be a
dynamic system with alot of wind. Gales are possible Wednesday
into Thursday. At this time, have SW winds increasing to 15-25
knots Tuesday night becoming WSW at 20-30 knots Wednesday
through Thursday. The period of stronger winds will be fine
tuned in the coming days.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday
night for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...10/13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 11:41 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
