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795 FXUS64 KLIX 121845AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1245 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025- Warming trend this week. Above normal temperatures starting tomorrow and lasting through early next week. - Tonight, tomorrow night, and Friday night, some patchy dense fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. &&.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025Increasing negative vorticity associated with a strengthening midto upper level ridge over the southern Plains and Texas will bethe main feature impacting the forecast across the Gulf Souththrough Friday night. The subsidence associated with this buildingridge will keep conditions drier and warmer than average throughthe period. A strong mid-level temperature inversion will alsoprohibit any rain showers from forming as updraft development willbe capped off between 5 and 10 thousand feet through the period.The only major forecast concern will be a higher potential for fogdevelopment each night. The presence of light onshore flow throughthe period will allow low level moisture to gradually increase.Additionally, the clear skies and light winds beneath the ridge willallow temperatures to quickly cool each night. In fact, I have opted to go with NBM 50th percentile temperatures for the overnight lows due to the strong radiational cooling expected. Theend result will be temperatures falling below the critical cross over temperature (the dewpoint temperature at the warmest portionof the day) each night, especially in more inland locations away from the coast. This will allow areas of fog to form in the earlymorning hours, and the fog could turn locally dense at times. There is a decent probability that dense fog advisories will be issued for portions of the area. The fog should burn off fairly quickly by the mid-morning hours as daytime heating allows for increased boundary layer mixing. By the afternoon, temperatures should climb a good 5 to 10 degrees above average into the upper 70s and lower 80s. &&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025All of the medium range model guidance continues to back off onany rain chances through the weekend as a southern stream systemis now not expected to push into the central Plains as a weakeningsheared out shortwave trough axis early next week. This means that the weekend will see a longwave mid to upper level ridge be the primary feature driving our weather. This will keep temperatures warmer than average in the upper 70s and lower 80s with only some fair weather cumulus development beneath a strong mid-level inversion expected each afternoon. Light onshore winds will continue to usher in low level moisture, so overnight lows will also be warmer than average in the upper 50s and 60s. Fog could still be a concern both Saturday and Sunday nights, but I have not included it in forecast at this time. Heading into early next week, the flow pattern will turn morezonal as the weakening shortwave trough moves through the Plainsand into the Ohio Valley. The tail end of this weak trough axiscould spark off some isolated to widely scattered shower activityon Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also remain warmer than average with highs climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s andlows will fall into the low to mid 60s each day. Althoughconditions are warm and moist in the low levels, boundary layerconditions will be less conducive to fog development. However,some morning stratus is likely to form beneath an elevatedinversion each day. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025Fog and low stratus is the primary concern in the next 24 to 30hours. Conditions look favorable for IFR fog and stratus todevelop at MCB, BTR, HDC, and HUM between 10z and 14z. Theseconditions include, light winds, clear skies, and strongradiational cooling that will allow a surface based temperatureinversion to form. Outside of this fog and low stratus threat, VFRconditions will continue to prevail at all of the terminals. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025A broad surface high centered over the northern Gulf through theweekend will keep winds light at 10 knots or less and seas fairlycalm at 2 feet or less through the entire period. Overall, nosignificant concerns to mariners are expected through the weekend. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 49 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 51 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 48 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 55 76 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 52 74 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
