IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 2:24 AM EST711
FXUS63 KIWX 190724
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
224 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly cloudy through the remainder of the week with highs in the
mid 40s today, and the low-mid 50s for Thursday and Friday.
- There is a chance (20-60%) for light rain Thursday night
through early Saturday, best chances south of US 24.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
A surface anticyclone will shift east through the
central/eastern Great Lakes today into tonight under steady
height rises and confluence aloft. Light, dry easterly flow will
persist on the southern fringes of this sfc high, though
lingering moisture locked within a subsidence inversion likely
keeps low clouds around for most.
High pressure drifts east into the Northeast US and an upper
level trough propagates east clipping the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night. This will
allow low level flow trajectories to veer southwesterly with
warmer temperatures anticipated. How warm on Thursday will be
dependent on how pesky lingering low clouds are, which is a
point on contention in the models with quite the spread noted
(FWA low 40s to near 60). Opted to hold close to the NBM with
enough low cloud scouring to get highs into the low-mid 50s.
A frontal boundary forced south by the aforementioned upper
trough then looks to become active later Thursday night through
early Saturday as a southern stream wave ejects into the central
Plains, eventually getting squashed east through the OH Valley by
leftover confluent west-northwest flow aloft. The GFS/GEFS
remains the outlier in a farther north, wetter, fgen solution
into at least the southern half of the IWX CWA, with the bulk of
the remaining guidance mainly dry and suppressed south of the
area. Opted to hold close to NBM low-mid chance PoPs (highest
south) given the lingering differences. Quiet/dry then behind
this system for much of the weekend into early next week with
temps averaging above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
A low-level inversion looks to lock in moisture and IFR to MVFR
ceilings. Satellite shows a corridor of MVFR ceilings advancing
south through Michigan. This appears to be on the trailing edge
of the departing upper-level low swirling into Pennsylvania.
Therefore, high confidence that KSBN sees improvement to MVFR
ceilings by 12z, perhaps sooner. Such improvement is less clear
at KFWA with their proximity farther south. Late in this TAF
period, not enough confidence in the forecast to improve
ceilings beyond the existing BKN025 as the 850-mb inversion
remains in place.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 2:24 AM EST---------------
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