BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 12:24 AM EST260
FXUS61 KBOX 170726
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1224 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday with
decreasing winds Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure settles in.
Quick moving frontal system arrives Friday into the weekend bringing
a period of unsettled weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Blustery and chilly today with mainly dry conditions
Mid level shortwave resulting in a few flurries and snow showers
rotating through SNE early this morning. The shortwave moves
offshore before daybreak which will bring an end to this precip.
Upper low lifts northward through the Maritimes today with trough
and cyclonic flow remaining over New Eng. With low-mid level
moisture in place we will see a mix of sun and clouds with diurnal
cu. However, expecting mainly dry weather today as forcing is
minimal. Gusty winds will continue today as strong pressure gradient
persists. Soundings show a well mixed boundary layer with potential
for 25-40 mph gusts. Chilly airmass across SNE with 850 mb temps
dropping to -10C by 12z with only minor recovery today. 925 mb temps
peak around -2C. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Wind chills will be down in the teens and 20s to start the morning
recovering to the 20s and lower 30s this afternonon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Clearing and cold tonight
* Mostly sunny and still a bit blustery Tue with below normal temps
Upper low continues to move northward across eastern Canada tonight
and Tue and slowly loses its grip on New Eng. Another shortwave
passes to the north and east tonight and should not impact SNE.
Expect clearing skies tonight but pressure gradient will keep winds
a bit gusty into Tue before diminishing Tue afternoon as the
gradient slackens. The column is quite dry Tue so expect lots of
sunshine. Wind will limit radiational cooling tonight with lows
generally in the mid-upper 20s, except lower 30s near the coast.
Slight moderation in low level temps Tue so highs in the low-mid
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry with less wind Wed-Thu but still cooler than normal
* Unsettled weather with milder temps Fri-Sat
Upper level flow deamplifies Wed into Thu as a quasi-zonal flow
develops. High pres builds into the region which will bring dry
weather and less wind Wed and Thu. Coastal wave moving off the mid
Atlc coast expected to remain far enough south to keep rainfall
south of New Eng but northern extent of precip could get close to
the Islands Wed with more clouds near the south coast. Then we have
a low amplitude shortwave passage on Thu but global and ensemble
guidance is dry with just an increase in cloud cover.
Low confidence forecast for Fri through next weekend as complex
pattern develops with considerable spread in the guidance.
Upper low continues to move northeast into the Maritimes into
Tuesday. Overall the upper air pattern deamplifies into zonal
flow midweek before another shortwave disturbance arrives by the
weekend. Breezy conditions continue into Tuesday behind
departing surface low. Much drier airmass with PWATS falling
well below 0.5" Wed-Thu as high pres moves into the region. Weak
shortwave moves through Thu but global ensembles have continued
to trend further south with the bulk of the precipitation. The
pattern becomes a bit more complex this weekend as a pronounced
northern stream dives south across the Great Lakes. Temps will
remain below normal through Thu with highs mostly in the 40s,
then milder conditions anticipated Fri and Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z Update...
Through 12z...
VFR, but scattered snow showers with lower conditions in the
Berkshires. A few flurries possible in the interior until 08z.
Today through Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR through the period, but areas of MVFR cigs in the
Berkshires today. W-NW gusts 25-35 kt diminishing overnight. W
gusts 20-25 kt Tue.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Gale Warnings Continue into Mon and Mon Night.
Gusts to 35-40 kt with sustained W winds from 20 to 35 kt are
expected to continue into tonight and Monday after a cold front
passed through this morning. Seas continue to build into
tonight, peaking at 12-14 ft over the southern waters. Winds
will remain gusty into part of tomorrow night as well as seas
begin to decrease.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230-236.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237-
251.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/FT
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...Hrencecin/FT
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 12:24 AM EST----------------
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