MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 11:33 AM CST ...New AVIATION...712
FXUS64 KMOB 131733
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
- Patchy fog may develop late tonight and Friday night mainly
across interior areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
Through Saturday night, a large and broad upper ridge advances
across the central CONUS then dampens out as a large upper trof
swings across the northern Plains and into the interior eastern
states. An eastern states surface ridge shifts across the forecast
area and becomes oriented over the northern Gulf through Saturday
which allows for a light southerly flow to become established
over the forecast area. Patchy fog development will be possible
mainly over the interior areas tonight and Friday night as winds
become calm with a mostly open radiative channel. The upper trof
mostly moves off into the western Atlantic through Monday, and a
surface low passing well off to the north meanwhile brings a weak
cold front into central MS/AL on Sunday, potentially progressing
into the forecast area. Deep layer moisture looks to remain too
limited through Sunday to support pops and have continued with a
dry forecast despite the potential for the frontal boundary to
move into the area.
A surface low is anticipated to develop over the central Plains
on Monday in response to a shortwave trof. The weak frontal
boundary over central MS/AL (potentially over the forecast area)
meanwhile lifts northward to roughly across Tennessee, with the
shortwave trof weakening while progressing across the interior
eastern states through Tuesday morning. The surface low looks to
dissipate with the weakening of the shortwave trof, and have
continued with a dry forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the weak
boundary lifts north of the area. A large upper trof advances
across the western states going into Wednesday then looks to
partially eject across the central states on Thursday, with an
accompanying surface low. Dry conditions prevail over the area on
Wednesday except for a slight chance for rain over the westernmost
portion, then for Thursday will have slight chance to chance pops
as the Plains system may bring a frontal boundary to near the
lower Mississippi River valley.
A low risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday. Lows
tonight range from the mid/upper 40s inland to the lower 50s
closer to the coast. Lows Friday night may be a bit cooler, then
Saturday night and Sunday night will be milder with lows ranging
from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Temperatures
continue to moderate going into Tuesday night when lows range from
the mid/upper 50s well inland to the lower 60s closer to the
coast. Lows Wednesday night will be similar. Highs on Friday will
be in the mid to upper 70s then slowly trend to the upper 70s to
lower 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Thursday will be 75
to 80. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through noon Friday along with light
and variable winds. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
A light westerly to northwesterly flow becomes easterly on Friday
and southerly on Saturday. A westerly to southwesterly flow on
Sunday turns southerly for Monday and Tuesday. No impacts are
anticipated through Tuesday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 52 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 75 54 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 74 56 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 76 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 75 48 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 74 44 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 75 45 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 11:33 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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