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866 FXUS64 KLIX 050518AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1118 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 - Steady warming trend continues thru late week and into the first half of the weekend, reaching the low to mid 80's Friday & Saturday for many areas - around 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of the year. - Increasing moist, southerly Gulf return flow will introduce the potential for fog across the area, with confidence increasing in more widespread/potentially dense fog Thursday morning and could continue again on Friday morning. - Rain chances increasing on Friday, with scattered showers around from the morning into the afternoon hours across most of the area. - Next strong cold front swings through Sunday, introducing the coldest air so far this season early next week - a freeze could be possible for the northern 1/3 of the area with frost for a large majority of the area. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025Yet another calm/quiet night across the area, with temperaturesnot as chilly as previous nights. From the earlier update,verification with yesterday's MinT's appeared to be on pointbetween the 50th/75th percentile plus lowering the drainagebasins, and took the same approach tonight as we still resideclose enough to the influence of the surface high, now centeredover the southern mid-Atlantic seaboard to promote another nightof radiational cooling. Additionally, will continue to monitor obsovernight with some patchy fog around early this morning todaybreak. For now, probabilities indicate fog to be not toowidespread or dense, but a few areas could briefly hit 1/2 to 1/4at times so use caution during your work commute. Since guidancenever changed much and given the aforementioned meteorologicalreasonings, not expecting a FG.Y but if trends play me for a fool,will reassess. Any fog around will dissipate shortly aftersunrise.Going into the day on Wednesday, no adjustments needed for highs as we'll top out into the mid to upper 70's. Will bring to attention what's spinning in the Gulf (did that get your attention?) Actually, in the form of a cut-off mid-level low meandering/retrograding west. Looking at total column PW, this feature holds with it a noticeable/distinct slug of moisture thatwill, with time, surge sfc to low-level moisture north across theregion supported by the aforementioned sfc high to the east. The increase in Gulf moisture, surging dewpoints higher will make it feel not as dry later this afternoon. The next focus thereafter becomes how this more moist, modified airmass promotes/increases the risk for fog Thursday morning. As of now, guidance is coming in pretty strong with more widespread, dense fog with best confidence along the Atchafalaya basin, east/north to SW MS and the northshore and portions of coastal MS. FG.Y headlines could bewarranted especially if guidance continues to maintain strong confidence. KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday night)Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025With the same WAA/return flow pattern in place, will have tomonitor for the potential of areas of fog again Friday morning.Then, really warming up Friday afternoon into the low to mid 80's.For now, this is not record-breaking heat, but above-normal none-the-less. By this point, given the proximity of anomalously highPW "slug" of moisture that was originally pulled north by the earlier (now dissipating) mid-level low, confidence is increasingthat we'll see scattered showers and a few storms over the area Friday morning through the afternoon. This is all out ahead of anapproaching front, driven by a shortwave impulse diving SE into mid MS valley to mid-Atlantic regions but de-amplifies with time, resulting in a slowing/weakening front into our general area. Given that, forcing for any shower/isolated storm will be more thermodynamic driven, coinciding with WAA/persistent moisture advection. Typically, this regime supports "confluence" bands of showers, something the CAMs will begin to depict as we get closer with time. Jumped on board the NBM's steady upwards trend in PoPs and went ahead with an increase of 10-20% just about areawide, which places many areas in the 40-50% chance Friday morning and afternoon. Definitely not an all-day washout, but would be enough to bring an umbrella with you. Saturday the front earlier struggles to make it any farther southand loses frontogenetic characteristics. The big story thenbecomes what is taking shape over the northern US as two shortwaveimpulses phase up leading to amplifying longwave troughing overthe east-central US coinciding with strong ridging over the western US. This will surge a much stronger cold front through thearea Sunday. For now, this front looks dry as the better moisturepulls away from the area associated with the first front and departing shortwave impulse, robbing any available moisture. Windspick up late Sunday into Monday following the front, as strong/deepening CAA settles into the region supported by a 1040mb+ surface high sliding down the Plains. With winds likely persisting Sunday night into Monday, that'll prevent it from becoming too cold but still won't have any problem reaching the low/mid 40's areawide to mid upper 30's for northern areas. Duringthe day on Monday, we'll likely struggle to reach the 60's as CAAcontinues. Once the high settles into the region allowing CAA to relax, we'llsee the coldest morning Monday night into Tuesday morning.Guidance is coming into alignment with early thoughts last night producing what will likely be the first freeze for the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of the area, and first widespread frost for most locations. As far as the depths of the science goes looking at many differentlong-range anomaly tools like EFI (ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index) Shift of Tails and GEFS M-Climate percentiles to interrogate howanomalous an airmass like this is, all strongly target the SE USsupporting the idea of impactful freeze to near-freezingconditions as far south as the Gulf coast. Not going to toy withexact numbers yet, as deterministic guidance is in pretty goodalignment but would not be surprised a few upper 20's pops out insome colder locations.Will mention given the long-range confidence of impactful cold temperatures and the fact this will likely be the coldest temperatures since mid-Feburary across the region, now would be good early heads-up to go over precautions you need to take including considering protecting sensitive vegetation, planning for pets and checking on the elderly. Beyond Tuesday, we warm up steadily going into the middle of next week. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025Main focus in this TAF cycle will be monitoring areas of patchyfog. As of early tonight, the greatest probabilities of <3SM appear to be for western terminals, as well as portions of the northshore/Pearl River basin and SW MS, including KMCB, (near) KASD, KBTR, KHDC and KHUM. Some patchy dense fog could be possible, mainly in lower drainage locations near/north of KASD and near KBTR. For now, expecting a brief period of 3/4 to 1/2sm generally between 10-12Z for the aforementioned terminals, but could intermittently reach 1/4sm at times with reductions in flight CAT likely. Conditions improve shortly after sunrise with VFR prevailing. Will also monitor another round of potentiallymore widespread/dense FG early Thu. KLG&&.MARINE...Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025High pressure anchored over the south Atlantic seaboard will continue to promote light to moderate easterly to east-southeasterly flow across marine waters today through Thursday. By Friday, winds shift more onshore out of the southeast to south-southeast. We'll also see scattered rain and storm chances increase primarily during the morning to afternoon hours on Friday, then diminishing towards sunset. By Sunday, a strong cold front swings through marine waters introducing strong offshore/northerly flow with gusts in excess of 25-35 knots, especially for Gulf waters, and waves/seas responding to around 7-10ft for 20-60nm zones. Small Craft Advisory and the potential for Gale conditions remain possible, primarily late Sun/early Mon through early Tuesday, then, high pressure settles into the region allowing for winds and wave/seas to relax into the middle of next week. KLG&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 44 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 47 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 45 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 56 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 50 76 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 44 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
