LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 5:38 PM CST ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...330
FXUS64 KLIX 042338
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
538 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
Another beautiful day in the books with temperatures much more
mild compared to this time of the day yesterday. Not playing catch
up with temps this evening, as guidance remains on track so far.
Verification from this morning's lows shows the forecast did
quite well again, with the NDFD blend of 50th/75th and lowering
for the drainage basins lining up best with verification. Took the
same approach tonight, as radiational cooling remains in control,
however will begin to battle a subtle/slow moisture return as the
surface high builds east of the region. This will begin the first
of many mornings where we'll monitor for the potential of some
patchy areas of fog. For now, guidance is coming in around 25-35%
(some 40%) probabilities of <1sm in patchy areas generally
along/west of I-59, with more specific/detailed locations being
the Pearl River & Atchafalaya basins. Went ahead with NBM guidance
but gave special attention to the drainage basins lowering VIS
and introducing patchy/areas of fog for many areas this morning.
Density remains in question, however, as guidance continues to
come in at periods of 1-3 mile visibility dominating, but some
isolated/scattered 1/2 to 1/4sm can't be ruled out. Holding off on
FG.Y headlines for now unless guidance/ob trends come in with
greater widespread lower density. Will update if need be.
Otherwise, any lingering fog dissipates around sunrise revealing
yet another beautiful day tomorrow with highs in the upper 70's.
Will get into more detail with the full package later this
evening. KLG
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
A very weak Rex Block continues over the Gulf with the H5 ridge
centered over our CWFA and an H5 low over the southern Gulf. The
ridge is fairly robust at 594dam over the region. This will help
bring temperatures up a bit this afternoon as well as Wednesday
with afternoon highs in the middle and upper 70s. The only
complication in the short term will be the potential for patchy
dense fog developing overnight or early Wednesday morning. The
best potential for fog will reside north of the I10/12 corridor
and west of the I55 corridor mostly over the MCB and BTR
areas...perhaps around HUM as well. Otherwise, with winds
beginning to veer to a more southerly direction and again with
the upper level ridge, overnight lows will likely be about ten
degrees or so higher than this morning. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday Night)
Issued at 1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
Going into the long term the H5 flow becomes more zonal or
progressive in nature over the region. At the surface, as high
pressure continues to exit stage east, surface return flow will
strengthen, which again promotes temperatures gradually
increasing. That said, increasing temperatures will be minimal
given the heights decreasing. With the rich low level flow going
later into the weekend and early Saturday morning some low topped
streamer showers will be possible. If updrafts can grow a bit
more than expected vertically a slight chance for a rumble of
thunder will also be there.
Late Saturday and into Sunday eyes point upstream at a strong cold
front and amplifying parent trough east of the Rockies. This
stronger front doesn't really have much moisture to work with as a
weaker front early in the weekend will pass through lowering
dewpoints behind it. However, cannot rule out an isolated shower
over the northwestern half of the CWFA as the extremely dry
airmass will want to precipitate any residual low level moisture.
As the broad scale trough amplifies and strong CAA sets in
temperatures will tumble with Monday most of the locations across
the CWFA not reaching the 60 degree mark. Going into Monday night
winds will gradually decrease as surface high settles into the
region. Calmer winds and clear skies will allow for strong
radiational cooling to take shape across the region. Overnight
Monday will likely host the first freeze for locations within the
Pearl River and Pascagoula River basins with perhaps our first
widespread frost elsewhere. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
Main focus in this TAF cycle will be the potential for
patchy/areas of FG this coming Wed morning. For now, greatest
probabilities of <3SM appear to be for western terminals, as well
as portions of the northshore/Pearl River basin and SW MS,
including KMCB, (near) KASD, KBTR, KHDC and KHUM. Some patchy
dense fog could be possible, mainly in lower drainage locations
near/north of KASD and near KBTR. For now, expecting a brief
period of 3/4 to 1/2sm generally between 10-12Z for the
aforementioned terminals, but could intermittently reach 1/4sm at
times with reductions in flight CAT likely. Conditions improve
shortly after sunrise with VFR prevailing. KLG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
Moderate easterly or southeasterly flow will continue into midweek
as high pressure remains just to our north and lower pressure
resides to our south over the western Caribbean. Eventually, high
pressure will begin to slide east with time. By late Thursday and
into Friday a more established return flow develops. Within this
flow, rain chances will climb, but remain lower-end given the
isolated nature. Moderate onshore flow will continue into the
weekend, however, winds will quickly transition behind a strong cold
front due into the region on Sunday. Small craft advisories are
likely. Gale products aren't out of the realm of possibility as
gusts may exceed 35 kt at times over the open Gulf waters. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 46 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 48 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 46 77 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 57 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 51 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 44 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 5:38 PM CST ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
