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190 FXUS64 KLIX 041833AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1004 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 - A warming trend will continue into late week as some locations will exceed 80 degrees going into Friday and Saturday. - Patchy, sometimes dense morning fog will be possible along and north of the I10/12 corridor and generally west of the I55 corridor Wednesday and Thursday mornings. - By Sunday, a very strong cold front is expected to pass through the region increasing marine winds, which may lead to Gale Watches/Warnings. Early next week some locations my experience the first freeze of the season late Monday Night. &&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025A very weak Rex Block continues over the Gulf with the H5 ridgecentered over our CWFA and an H5 low over the southern Gulf. Theridge is fairly robust at 594dam over the region. This will helpbring temperatures up a bit this afternoon as well as Wednesdaywith afternoon highs in the middle and upper 70s. The onlycomplication in the short term will be the potential for patchydense fog developing overnight or early Wednesday morning. Thebest potential for fog will reside north of the I10/12 corridorand west of the I55 corridor mostly over the MCB and BTRareas...perhaps around HUM as well. Otherwise, with windsbeginning to veer to a more southerly direction and again with the upper level ridge, overnight lows will likely be about ten degrees or so higher than this morning. (Frye) &&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday Night)Issued at 1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025Going into the long term the H5 flow becomes more zonal orprogressive in nature over the region. At the surface, as high pressure continues to exit stage east, surface return flow will strengthen, which again promotes temperatures gradually increasing. That said, increasing temperatures will be minimal given the heights decreasing. With the rich low level flow going later into the weekend and early Saturday morning some low topped streamer showers will be possible. If updrafts can grow a bit more than expected vertically a slight chance for a rumble of thunder will also be there. Late Saturday and into Sunday eyes point upstream at a strong coldfront and amplifying parent trough east of the Rockies. Thisstronger front doesn't really have much moisture to work with as aweaker front early in the weekend will pass through loweringdewpoints behind it. However, cannot rule out an isolated shower over the northwestern half of the CWFA as the extremely dryairmass will want to precipitate any residual low level moisture.As the broad scale trough amplifies and strong CAA sets in temperatures will tumble with Monday most of the locations across the CWFA not reaching the 60 degree mark. Going into Monday night winds will gradually decrease as surface high settles into the region. Calmer winds and clear skies will allow for strong radiational cooling to take shape across the region. Overnight Monday will likely host the first freeze for locations within the Pearl River and Pascagoula River basins with perhaps our first widespread frost elsewhere. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025VFR and light/variable winds through this evening and into theovernight hours. BTR, HUM, and MCB may experience some fog closerto sunrise on Wednesday. Locally patchy dense fog will bepossible with IFR or lower VIS possible. This will quickly mix outshortly after sunrise leading to again VFR conditions by the endof the cycle. (Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 1233 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025Moderate easterly or southeasterly flow will continue into midweek as high pressure remains just to our north and lower pressure resides to our south over the western Caribbean. Eventually, high pressure will begin to slide east with time. By late Thursday and into Friday a more established return flow develops. Within this flow, rain chances will climb, but remain lower-end given the isolated nature. Moderate onshore flow will continue into the weekend, however, winds will quickly transition behind a strong cold front due into the region on Sunday. Small craft advisories are likely. Gale products aren't out of the realm of possibility as gusts may exceed 35 kt at times over the open Gulf waters. (Frye)&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 47 75 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 51 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 49 77 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 58 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 52 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
