CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 1:57 AM EST543
FXUS61 KCLE 160657
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
157 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will settle over eastern Great Lakes through Monday as
high pressure slowly builds in from the west. The high will move
over the area Monday night before exiting to the east on Tuesday.
Weak low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley late Tuesday
into Wednesday with a stronger low pressure system lifting
northeast into the region towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect precip will develop over NW PA this morning and
continue through the remainder of the near term period as an
upper trough settles over the eastern Great Lakes. The vast
majority of the lake effect precip will be confined to NW PA
since quite a bit of dry air will be in place over NE OH. Precip
will likely start off as rain early before transitioning to a
rain/snow mix as 850mb temps cool to -5C to -6C and surface
temps fall to the mid to upper 30s by late morning. A transition
to snow at inland locations will likely occur at some point late
this morning into this afternoon with more efficient snowfall
rates developing as 850mb drop to -7C to -8C this evening. There
will most likely be a primary band that will develop and become
enhanced by a Lake Huron connection during the day today before
wavering somewhere near the NW PA/NY border through Monday
morning. The band will likely weaken as it shifts into western
New York Monday afternoon.
Looking at forecast soundings, the setup for heavy snowfall
rates and several inches of snow accumulation appears to be
favorable with ample forcing, very little shear, and equilibrium
levels as high as 10kft anticipated tonight into Monday
morning. The heaviest snowfall rates and greatest impacts will
likely occur late tonight into the pre-dawn hours Monday. The
majority of high res guidance places a swath of 6-8 inches of
snow (and localized amounts as high as 8-10 inches) over
locations where the band of snow persists, however there is
quite a bit of uncertainty in where that occurs. The western
edge of the snowfall gradient will be very tight and will make
the difference between impactful snow amounts and very little
(if any) snowfall through Monday afternoon. There's potential
for fetch to vary just enough to make the band somewhat
transient, which could result in more evenly distributed snow
amounts and overall lower impacts and there's also a chance that
the band could shift east into western New York.
With all of that being said, confidence in the placement of the
primary Lake Huron enhanced band is too low to warrant the
issuance of a Lake Effect Snow Warning, so have opted for a
Winter Weather Advisory that is in effect for inland Erie County
and Crawford County from 15Z today to 18Z Monday. Will continue
to monitor the placement of the lake effect band and adjust the
forecast and possibly upgrade headlines if needed. The majority
of the impacts will likely occur in the highest terrain of the
eastern portions of NW PA (including Corry and Wattsburg and
possibly Spartansburg and Union City).
It will be quite gusty across the entire today with wind gusts
to 30 to 40 mph anticipated across the entire area later this
morning through this evening. Winds may briefly get close to 45
mph along the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA and across the higher
terrain of northern Ohio during peak diurnal mixing today. Highs
today and Monday will likely reach the upper 30s to lower 40s
across the snowbelt region with warmer temps in the mid 40s
anticipated to the west. Tonight's lows will be in the 20s and
lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake effect precip should lift into western New
York and continue to weaken as high pressure expands east across
the region Monday night. However, by Tuesday, weakening low
pressure will track east into the Ohio Valley as an upper trough
drops southeast across the local area. Isentropic lift ahead of
the low will usher precip into the local area Tuesday morning
or afternoon through Tuesday evening. Generally expect rain as
the primary precip type, however wet bulbing may result in a
brief period of snow or a rain/snow mix at the onset Tuesday
morning. The majority of the precip will likely exit to the east
Tuesday night and there will probably be a period of drier
weather before a shortwave possibly lifts additional showers
into the region Wednesday night.
High temperatures will likely be in the 40s on Tuesday with
highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s anticipated for Wednesday.
Overnight lows will trend warmer during the short term period
with 20s and lower 30s Monday night giving way to mid 30s to
lower 40s by Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather will return to the local area during the long
term period as low pressure lifts northeast into the region
Thursday and Friday. There's still a lot to iron out with the
strength and exact track of the low, but rain will likely move
into the region as the low's warm front lifts into the region
Thursday night and continue as the cold front and low move
across the Great Lakes late Friday or Saturday. This will likely
be a warmer system with above normal temperatures likely
Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Predominately VFR conditions are being observed behind the
departing cold front with patchy MVFR ceilings being observed
down wind of the Lake Michigan and Lake Erie. These lower
clouds, generally ranging between 2-3kft, are impacting KTOL,
KYNG, and KERI currently but are likely to bounce between VFR
and MVFR into the morning hours. By sunrise, all terminals
should rebound to VFR conditions and persist through the end of
the period. The exception of this will be KERI and possibly KYNG
which will be impacted by lake effect showers Sunday afternoon
through the end of the period. Initial showers should remain
rain but transition to all snow around sunset on Sunday. These
snow showers have the potential to reduce visibilities and low
ceilings to MVFR and possibly IFR conditions at times.
Sustained northwest winds of 10-15 knots will occur through the
overnight hours with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. By Sunday
morning, deeper mixing will result in an increase in northwest
winds to become sustained at 15-20 knots with gusts near 30
knots possible. A few isolated gusts up to 35 knots is possible,
especially across the eastern terminals.
Outlook...Sporadic non-VFR from lake effect clouds and
rain/snow may linger across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania into Tuesday. Non-VFR possible areawide in light
rain and/or snow on Tuesday. Non-VFR likely to return late
Thursday in widespread rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue across Lake Erie through
Monday as a strong cold front tonight ushers in west to northwest
flow of 25 to 30 knots with periodic gusts up to 40 knots possible,
especially on Sunday. Opted to go with a high-end Small Craft
Advisory as confidence in persistent Gale conditions remains low,
although can't rule out isolated and brief instances of Gale-like
conditions, particularly across the central and eastern basin of
Lake Erie on Sunday. Northwest winds will begin to taper to 10 to 15
knots by Monday night, becoming east to southeast on Wednesday,
around 10 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
Monday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 1:57 AM EST---------------
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