IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 11:38 AM EST134
FXUS63 KIWX 121638
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1138 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy this afternoon with westerly wind gusts near 30 mph.
- Trending warmer for the remainder of the week.
- The next chance for rain is this weekend (20-40% chance).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025
A compact, upper-level low was moving through the upper Great Lakes
this morning. Perhaps aided by onshore flow, a few rain showers were
noted across southern Michigan. Cross sections otherwise show
moisture confined to the lowest 7k feet and minimal forcing, thus,
minimal impacts.
Decreasing clouds today and becoming breezy this afternoon.
Northwest flow strengthens between Canadian high pressure over
western Quebec and high pressure off the Gulf coast. The low-level
jet strengthens to about 40-45 knots but forecast soundings depict
mixing just shy of these 850mb winds, resulting in westerly wind
gusts near 30 mph. Highs today will creep even warmer than Tuesday,
further thawing the weekend's snowpack.
For the remainder of the week, quiet weather until about Saturday
when the next low arrives from the Canadian Prairie. Until then,
temperatures will gradually warm day-to-day with highs trending
above normal (into the upper 50s) Friday and then well into the 60s
Saturday (a reminder of how early this recent dose of winter was!)
For Saturday, poleward moisture return into the Canadian low is
disjointed which decreases forecast confidence for weekend rain
amounts. Sharply colder with 850-mb temperatures crashing below 0C,
resulting in temperatures closer to normal with highs only near 50F.
A progressive pattern thereafter looks to offer more temperature
swings.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025
A frontal boundary is pushing across the area, with the only
noted impacts being a shift in the winds to NW and increase in
wind gusts for the next several hours as modest mixing occurs.
Winds should diminish after 00Z and remain under 10 kts through
the remainder of the period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 11:38 AM EST---------------
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