JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 2:18 PM EST404
FXUS63 KJKL 131918
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
218 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After near normal temperatures today, a warming trend is
expected to end the week, temperatures reaching 10 to 15 degrees
above normal by Saturday.
- The next chances for precipitation, in the form of rain showers,
will come late in the day on Friday.
- More widespread rain chances enter the forecast ahead of a cold
front on Saturday night. A few thunderstorms with gusty winds
cannot be ruled out as the front passes.
- There is a significant degree of forecast uncertainty for Sunday
and beyond, but the pattern looks to remain active into the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
Quiet weather continues in the short term, as high pressure slowly
build into the area from the west. High clouds currently stream over
the state, under mostly sunny skies while afternoon temperatures
have already reached the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will remain
light and out of the west to northwest through sunset. This is due
to an exiting low in the Great Lakes region. After sunset, winds
become light and variable and continue through the overnight. Lows
will range from the lower 30s in the valleys to upper 30s along
ridge tops. Some of the coldest sheltered valleys across Eastern
Kentucky may dip into the upper 20s.
Friday, an upper level low all the way over in the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba area of Canada will have a warm front
extending southeast across the Ohio and Mid-Mississipppi Valleys.
This warm front will move across Eastern Kentucky during the day
leading to a mix of sun and clouds, and perhaps sprinkles or an
isolated shower across portions of the area. Temperatures will be
warm in the mid to upper 60s, under southwest winds. This warm front
will help bring warm moist air to the region. Sky cover increases
overnight along with the shower chances. Lows will generally remain
in the low 50s, with a few colder spots across the VA/KY boarder
seeing the upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 515 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
The long term period is expected to begin with an upper level
ridge centered in the western Gulf with the axis of this ridge
extending across the Southern and Central Plains to the western
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper low is expected to be in place
near the Maritimes with a trough south east of the eastern
seaboard. A shortwave or two in northwest flow between these
systems is expected to be passing through portions of the OH
Valley and into the Appalachians. Meanwhile, further north an
upper low is expected to be tracking near the Saskatchewan and
Manitoba border with an an associated shortwave trough south into
the MT/Northern Rockies vicinity. A closed upper low is progged
to be located off the CA coast at that point as well while
another upper low/trough should extend form the Gulf of Alaska
vicinity south into parts of the Pacific. At the surface, the
period should begin with a ridge of sfc high pressure extending
from Quebec to the Southeast Conus continuing to depart while a
warm front is expected to extend into eastern KY from a surface
low in the northern Manitoba vicinity and a cold front should
extend into portions of the Northern Plains to Norther Rockies.
Friday night to Saturday night, the shortwave in northwest clouds
is expected to combine with the warm front lifting through the
area for some sprinkles or isolated showers on Friday evening with
perhaps greater coverage of showers for a time later Friday night
near the Tug Fork/WV border vicinity. Otherwise, the shortwave
ridge axis is expected to shift across eastern KY on Saturday
while the upper low in Canada meanders to south/southwest of
Hudson and James bays. The sfc low is expected to trek to the
Ontario/Quebec border vicinity late Saturday into Saturday evening
while the trailing cold front will move south south across the
Great Lakes and portions of the Central Conus and into the OH
Valley region. As the upper low moves further into Ontario and
nears Quebec a trailing shortwave trough axis will move into the
Great Lakes and OH Valley while the trailing cold front moves into
and perhaps across all of eastern KY by dawn on Sunday. Moisture
is expected to increase ahead of this boundary with dewpoints into
the 50s averaging around the mid 50s. Limited CAPE is anticipated
ahead of the front late Saturday or Saturday evening and into
Saturday night but shear should be rather ample. There are some
elevated convective probabilities in some of the AI ECMWF and GFS
guidance and SPC has highlighted general thunder for most of
eastern KY with a marginal risk on Day 3 from a few of the
northeastern Counties northeast across sections of the mid to
upper OH Valley.
A gusty line of convection or line segments of showers will be
possible along or in advance of the boundary and SPC has
highlighted areas of northeastern KY into sections of WV, OH, and
PA in a marginal risk for severe storms and this threat appears to
be more substantial northeast of eastern KY where instability
should be a bit more favorable. Ahead of the cold front on
Saturday, temperatures will rise to roughly 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, in stark contrast to temperatures experienced earlier in
the week.
Sunday to Monday night, a upper trough will have developed into
the eastern Conus by the start of the period to the south of an
elongated upper low in Canada. Further south and west, an upper
level ridge is expected to remain centered in the western Gulf
vicinity and initially extend across the Gulf with an axis of
ridging into the Southern Plains to WY and Northern Rockies
vicinity downstream of the upper low near the CA coast as the
weekend begins having moved toward sections of the Great Basin.
Meanwhile, the next upstream trough over sections of the Pacific
should be approaching BC and the Pacific Northeast at that point.
The cold front is expected to sag south of eastern KY Sunday into
early Monday. However, by Monday, sfc low pressure should begin
to organized to the lee of the Rockies in sections of the Central
Plains/High Plains and in response to the upper low weakening to
an open wave and moving across sections of the Central and
Northern Plains/Central by late Monday, a sfc low should track
across the Central Conus to the vicinity of the Ozarks by late
Monday night while the downstream boundary which crosses the area
to end the weekend returns northeast as a warm front that nears
eastern KY during that time. A relative lull in rain shower
chances during what should generally be an active extended period
should occur from midday Sunday and into Monday when shortwave
ridging approaching and sfc high pressure should dominate. This
pattern should favor a moderate ridge/valley temperature split on
Sunday night with temperatures also not far from normal highs for
Sunday and Monday. The remaining shortwave trough should move from
parts of the Central Conus and into the OH Valley region on
Monday night though guidance varies in the depth and timing of
this wave. However, this shortwave may interact with the frontal
zone nearing eastern KY for chances of convection. Some thunder
cannot be ruled out Monday night, mainly in the more southern
locations nearer to the approaching boundary.
Tuesday and Wednesday, the shortwave trough that should be over or
nearing the OH Valley and Appalachians early Tuesday should shift
east of eastern KY by late Tuesday or Tuesday night and a period
of height rises behind that may occur for a time before the next
upper level low/trough moving across the western Conus begins to
near the Plains/Central Conus and disturbances in southwest flow
ahead of it may interact with a the frontal zone in the vicinity.
The sfc low moving along it may weaken with this frontal zone
tending to become stationary as midweek approaches due to upper
ridging building from the Gulf into the Southeast Conus.
Uncertainty with individual weaker shortwaves is below average in
this pattern, though the sfc system nearing the area and the
passing shortwave should result in a bit higher chances for
showers on Tuesday as compared to Wednesday when mid level height
rises/shortwave ridging could limit the extent of any convection
to end the period. Guidance has considerable spread as far as
temperatures as midweek approaches as is the case for Monday. NBM
deterministic highs were near normal while diurnal ranges should
be limited with the boundary in the vicinity and anticipated
clouds and convection at times.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period as
high pressure moves into the area. Winds are expected to be west
to northwest at less than 10KT. Winds will again diminish around
00Z to light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 2:18 PM EST---------------
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