Please read the newsposts on the homepage! Some are rules some are archives from past events.
586 FXUS64 KLIX 010436AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1136 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 - Clouds increase later today as the next weather system approaches the area, introducing light rain chances mainly across coastal and SE LA tonight. Little, if any impacts expected. - Another reinforcing shot of cool air filters in Sunday through Tuesday, with chilly morning temps yet again and a few colder areas reaching the upper 30's. - A warming trend builds into the middle to later parts of next week, reaching the low 80's for many areas while staying dry. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Now this is the correct way to enter the month of November with cool, crisp temperatures and clear skies to start the day. From the earlier update, it was mentioned how verification for lows yesterday morning were on the cooler side of ensemble guidance (closer to the 50th percentile) while NBM deterministic guidance was biasing warm, generally closer to the 75th, if not slightly above. Temperature trends were loud and clear tonight, as hourly temps were plummeting earlier in the late evening/early night which required a few ESTF updates to capture the steeper nocturnaldip which reflects the intense degree of radiational cooling under surface high pressure. Jumped on board these trends and implemented a widespread lowering in inherited guidance several degrees cooler, bringing lows generally similar to what we saw yesterday morning with lows at the NBM 50th percentile with emphasis in lowering across the Pearl River and Pascagoula drainage basis. Otherwise, we're headed towards yet another beautiful day but, we're already keeping eyes on the next system taking shape over the northern US. As advertised for a few days, a large upper-level low/positive tilt trough will slide south in connection with a departing secondary impulse over New England. What this will do is "slingshot" this disturbance south and promote a steady increase in quasi-zonal flow and moisture advection emitting across from the southern Plains. What we'll see first inresponse to this trough nearing closer will be increasing mid to upper- level clouds (altocumulus/stratocumulus and cirrus) as CAMproximity soundings and RICAPS analysis illustrate later this afternoon. Meanwhile in the surface to low-levels, we're staying high and dry with the same dry/cool continental airmass remains tucked in place across the northern Gulf coast. As this trough continues to approach later this evening/overnight, increasing PVA and subtle dynamic ascent in conjunction with sfc to low-levelfrontogenetics will support shower and eventually t-storm development over the NW Gulf. For days now, the major question here was how far north precip can make it following the greatest available lift and attendant moisture. Going to hang tight with what consistency has shown, and what the 01Z NBM presented hitting20-30% Pops along the immediate SE LA coastline to around 10-15% for the Southshore. Introduced drizzle in lighter PoPs as this type of regime supports what could be eventual low- level wet bulbing starting as virga, and could produce some light showers ordrizzle across the Southshore/River parishes tonight. Any farthernorth, and we're a bit farther away from greater low- level lift and attendant moisture where the dry air may likely win over. Regardless, no impacts anticipated but some folks could wake up Sunday morning to some light showers or drizzle around for far southern areas.Beyond that going into the day on Sunday, the front passes throughand so does the attendant trough axis, promoting building CAAacross the region. Clouds are not likely to linger, meaning we'llsee sunshine return in full force which (shouldn't) mess with highs, just might need to monitor if clouds can linger later for coastal MS but right now that's not looking very likely. KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Going into early next week, CAA continues as cooler continental air settles into the region. We'll see how soon winds can shut down late Sunday night into Monday morning, which will determine how cold it gets but for now, with CAA and this reinforcing shot being pretty notably strong, it should still drop many areas into the low 40's to even some upper 30's yet again for traditionally colder (protected) areas like the Pearl River and Pascagoula basins. Tuesday, surface high pressure settles in shutting the winds down completely with pleasant fall days starting out the newweek ahead. Going into the middle to later part of next week, the big storyturns to a developing (anonymously strong) ridge dominating mostof the US. The ridge center peaks to around 591dm over thenorthern Gulf which is quite impressive, and will yield muchwarmer temperatures across the region. As mentioned yesterday,highs will have no problem crossing the 80's for many areas,perhaps getting into the low to mid 80's for some. NBMdeterministic values for now are anywhere from 78-81, but ampretty confident we'll see some 82-84's out of a pattern likethis, so we'll see how trends progress and identify the need toadjust temperatures but for now, the main story is much warmer toend the week while remain high high and dry. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecastcycle. Will monitor clouds increasing out of the northwest laterthis afternoon/evening beginning in the mid to upper-levelsbetween 10-25kft, and will eventually see light -SHRA across SE LA terminals overnight tonight with but prior to that, VFR will prevail for all areas. KLG &&.MARINE...Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025Quiet and cool conditions will persist during the day today, however our next weather system approaches marine waters later this afternoon into tonight. For now, expecting to see periods of light to moderate rain showers and perhaps some embedded thunder across Gulf marine zones later tonight. Impacts are expected to be limited. Then, a front will sweep across coastal waters as winds transition offshore from the north. At this time, winds will build anywhere into the 10-15kt range, but could reach 15-20kts especially for 20-60nm zones. Expecting Exercise Caution headlines but winds could approach close to Small Craft Advisory criteria especially for the aforementioned outer zones. Will monitor trends in guidance if this continues. Otherwise it stays breezy through Monday before winds back off Tuesday into mid/late week with clear/calm conditions expected through the end of the week. KLG&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 40 68 44 65 / 0 0 10 0 BTR 42 72 47 68 / 0 0 10 0 ASD 38 71 44 70 / 0 0 10 0 MSY 50 73 55 72 / 0 0 10 0 GPT 45 70 49 72 / 0 0 10 0 PQL 37 72 43 72 / 0 0 10 10 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
