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436 FXUS64 KLIX 310434AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1134 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1105 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 - Chilly morning starting the day today with 40's areawide to mid 50's for the Southshore. Some low 40's for traditionally cooler areas across southern MS, interior coastal SE MS and Pearl River/Pascagoula basins. - Next system approaches the area late Saturday into early Sunday, with generally light rain chances along the SE LA coast and adjacent marine areas. No impacts expected. - Big story next week is a steady warming trend, reaching the 80's for a few locations by the middle to later part of the week. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Night)Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025Calm, quiet and cool start to yet another autumn late-october daythanks to a dry continental airmass settling in the region dominated by weak surface high pressure building into the southernUS. CAA continues to back off, but is not "fully" shut down yet looking at the 00Z RAOB and short-term HRRR proximity soundings, showing around 15-20 kt northerly flow at around 3-8kft AGL. Meanwhile at the surface winds have relaxed to nearly calm at mostsites from around 0-3kts. Given ample clear skies and (mostly) calm winds, radiational cooling will keep us chilly overnight bottoming out in the 40's for most areas. Could even see a few low40's or an isolated upper 30 in traditionally cooler locations insouthern MS, the Pearl River/Pascagoula drainage basins. Warmer for the Southshore as northerly flow across warmer tidal lakes (60-70F) modifies the air, resulting in lows generally in the mid 50's come daybreak Friday morning. Otherwise, we'll warm up again today into the upper 60's to low 70's with bright blue skies and ample sunshine. Lowered dewpoints again from 17-01Z trending towards the 25th percentile to account for deep/strong PBL mixing,but overall, a beautiful day.Same story going into Saturday, but focus begins to shift at ournext system approaching the area from the northwest. As mentionedyesterday, a broad zonal trough digs south over the northernPlains/northern MS valley region being slingshot from a departingdeeper shortwave trough over New England. This will send thisdisturbance south into the central/southern MS valley region thisweekend. Also mentioned yesterday was the low confidence scenarioin associated rain chances with this system, as long-rangeguidance diverged largely from heavy rain to not even a drop ofrain across the area. Now that 24 hours have passed, diving deepinto the guidance yet again reveals (slightly) increasing confidence, but still some doubts. Going over it all, trough amplification remains in question which relates to the degree of associated downstream ascent/forcing and available moisture returnin the NW Gulf. Stronger/more amplified trough would uptick attendant isentropic ascent over top weak easterly sfc to low-level flow in a overrunning light stratiform precip regime. While this appears plausible, the question comes from 1) What will be the extent of precipitation in regards to areal coverage and 2) What about the intensity. For now, what we have in the PoPs seems plausible and any small adjustment upwards would be negligibly noticed. The 01Z keeps 20-25% PoPs for the immediate coast and across SE LA and transitions lower to 7-14% for the I-10/12 corridor on north where forcing is limited (with drier air as well) and the trough doesn't quite amplify downstream ascent in time as it quickly passes east. Will advertise the rain to be generally light and off/on for now and not anticipating any impactful issues. We'll see how this plays out and how trends continue if any adjustments are needed.One way or the other, once this system gets out of here, it'll beout of here in a hurry with clearing skies Sunday with a breezynorth wind. KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night)Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025Starting the new week chilly yet again, as low temps bottom outback into the 40's areawide to the low/mid 50's for the Southshoreboth Monday and Tuesday mornings. Didn't get too cute here but would'nt be surprised we end up a few degrees colder than what we're seeing this morning, perhaps a few more notable upper 30 degree readings depending on the extent of radiational cooling, primarily Monday morning. Beyond that, hard to find a single drop of rain all next week butone thing is certain, we're going to warm back up mid/late week asanonymously strong, nearly 594dm ridging begins to dominate the southern US and northern Gulf. That'll support highs into the 80'sfor several areas Wednesday thru Friday. Not exactly the cool fall weather like we've been seeing, but still overall quiet. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecastcycle. No impacts are expected, with winds becoming around 6-8ktsfrom the north Friday afternoon but will diminish around sunset.KLG&&.MARINE...Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025We'll continue to see occasionally breezy offshore winds tonight ranging 10-15kts, mainly for Gulf zones through sunrise but the general trend will be winds becoming lighter going into the day today with waves/seas diminishing thanks to high pressure building into the region. Next system approaches the area late Saturday into early Sunday bringing about a 12 hour period of off/on light rain for mainly Gulf waters. Once this system quickly departs the area early Sunday, offshore flow will set in once again and becoming breezy reaching exercise caution criteria at around 10-15kts and wind gusts 15 to reaching around 20 knots for offshore 20-60nm Gulf zones. Will see how the winds trend over the next few days to determine the need for Small Craft Advisory conditions, which appears plausible. Otherwise, turning calm/dry going into the rest of the middle to later parts of next week. KLG&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 41 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 44 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 41 69 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 52 70 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 44 69 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 40 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
