IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:31 PM EST760
FXUS63 KIND 091731
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1231 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain ends this early this morning.
- Turning colder, temperatures lingering in the 30s much of the
day. Chances for snow showers this afternoon into Monday.
- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph today.
- Lows in the 20s Sunday night and Monday night, with wind chills
in the teens at times Sunday night into Monday night.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
Rain showers have gradually been mixing with and changing to snow
across central Indiana this morning. However, much of the steadier
precipitation has exited the area. We'll see a couple hour break
with temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 30s. Additionally,
winds will remain brisk out of the northwest between 10-20mph
gusting up to 30mph.
Radar is beginning to show signs of the next round of precipitation,
currently extending south from Lake Michigan into Illinois. This
band of lake-enhanced precipitation is mainly snow, and will slowly
spread southeastward through the day. Some of this snow may become
heavy enough to bring about light accumulations (dusting to half of
an inch), mainly on grassy surfaces. Overall, most locations will
not see any accumulations until later tonight due to marginal air
temperatures and warm ground temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure over SE
Indiana. Strong and cold high pressure was found entering MT and ND.
This was resulting in a cold northerly flow of air across the upper
midwest. Flow across Indiana at the moment was more variable due to
the location of the current low, but that cold, northerly flow will
be notable today. Radar shows the location of the upper low, over
east Central IL. Scattered showers were found within the warm
sector, pushing northeast across Central Indiana. More wrap around
type showers with snow were found across northern IL and northern
Indiana. Aloft, strong ridging was building across the western
CONUS, while a low over northern Ontario was deepening. This was
resulting in a strong surge of cold, Canadian air plunging southward
across the northern plains.
Today...
The upper low and associated surface low pressure system will push
east of Central Indiana, allowing the onset and arrival of a much
colder air air mass across Central Indiana. Models suggest a
continuation of cyclonic lower level flow across the area today amid
a tight pressure gradient. Aloft, strong ridging will remain in
place over the western CONUS while a large, deepening trough will be
in place over the midwest. This highly amplified flow will bring much
colder air to Central Indiana on northerly winds. Within the lower
levels, strong cold air advection will be in play as 850mb temps
fall toward -10C by 00Z. This will result in steady or slowly
falling temperatures throughout the day with temperatures lingering
in the mid 30s for much of the day. Time heights and forecast
soundings reveal saturation within the low levels given the cyclonic
flow and cold air advection. Forcing will be weak through the day as
the clouds remain, however light precipitation will remain possible,
especially toward 21Z as a secondary upper trough begins to pass
across Indiana. Forecast soundings at that time will remain below
freezing, thus p-type will be snow. Precipitation amounts should be
minimal and contained to elevated and grassy areas.
Tonight...
The upper trough will continue to push across Indiana this evening,
with the best forcing expected to pass between 21Z Sun and 03Z Mon.
HRRR fails to pick up on this possible precip, but given the lower
level moisture and forcing arriving with the secondary trough/upper
low, pops with minimal accumulations will still be needed. Clouds
should continue to linger overnight as ridging aloft will remain
well to the west. Cold air advection looks to continue as the core
of the cold air with 850mb temps near -12C arrives across central
Indiana. By morning surface temperatures look to fall the middle
20s, should any flakes remain at that points, minimal, thin
accumulations could be possible on concrete and paved surfaces.
Further of note, a lake effect band is likely to set up in NW
Indiana. HRRR suggests this band may impact areas within the Wabash
valley overnight. Any snow amounts in central Indiana will not be
nearly as significant as near Lake Michigan, however, this area does
have additional potential for light snow showers lingering
overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
The work week will begin on a cold and blustery note, with snow
showers likely, particularly Monday morning, though the tail end of
a potent lake effect band may keep flakes falling over northern and
northeastern portions of the area into the afternoon and evening
hours.
This will all occur as a strong upper low quickly pivots through the
area early Monday, along with a secondary surface trough. A fairly
strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place, promoting
wind gusts as high as 20-25 MPH Monday, and 25-30 MPH Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Subtle upper level disturbances will slide through the area Tuesday,
which could produce a few flurries with some midlevel moisture
present, though low level dry air will sublimate much of this
activity. Will carry a chance of flurries in the morning and
flurries or sprinkles in the afternoon on Tuesday.
Much of the remainder of the long term period will be dry as high
pressure at the surface dominates and heights aloft build, allowing
temperatures to steadily recover mid week onward, with highs
climbing back into the 50s and 60s.
The next substantial chance of precipitation comes late next
weekend, though significant guidance differences make this highly
uncertain, though temperatures should be warm enough for this to be
all rain.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings through the afternoon and into tonight.
- Light snow at times, MVFR/IFR visibilities in snow.
- Winds between 10-20kt with gust to 25-30kt.
Discussion:
Lake-enhanced snow showers are moving southward through Indiana as
of 17z. Snow is expected at all terminals with minor visibility
reductions. A break in the snow is likely this evening and into
tonight before a more substantial round of snow moves southward.
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible late tonight into Monday morning
before snow tapers off around 16z Monday. Quick improvement to VFR
conditions is expected after the snowfall ends.
Winds will primarily be out of the northwest today between 10-20kt
gusting to 25-30kt. Winds may decrease overnight ahead of the second
round of snowfall, before increasing again late Monday morning into
Monday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:31 PM EST---------------
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