MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 11:19 AM CST ...New AVIATION...025
FXUS64 KMOB 051719
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1119 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
- A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon through Friday night, mainly over interior portions
of southwestern Alabama.
- A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most
of the marine area Sunday evening through Monday night with the
potential for occasional gusts to gale force.
- The first freeze of the season is becoming increasingly
probable for most of the forecast area excluding the immediate
coast Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall into the
upper 20's and lower 30's.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1007 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain in control of the
forecast through Thursday. High pressure shifts east Thursday into
Friday, allowing for moisture return into the area ahead of an
approaching upper trough. An upper trough will glance across the
forecast area Friday into Friday night bringing scattered showers
and thunderstorms to much of the area, with a strong to severe
storm possible. Best chances right now appear to be over interior
portions of southwestern Alabama. A stronger, more amplified upper
trough pushes across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing
with it a strong cold front and the coldest airmass of the season
Monday into Monday night. A near area-wide freeze is becoming
increasingly probable.
Temperatures remain above normal with highs topping out in the
upper 70's to lower 80's through Friday, with even some lower to
middle 80's anticipated Saturday. Overnight lows warm as well with
generally middle 40's to lower 50's tonight becoming middle 50's
to lower 60's Thursday night. Friday night will likely feature
warm lows in the lower to middle 60's. As warm advection occurs
ahead of the system Friday, moisture return will likely be
adequate to promote shower and thunderstorm development as broad,
weak upper difluence overspreads the region with the upper trough
glancing the forecast area. This will likely help generate around
1,000j/kg of SBCAPE, which coupled with around 35 to 40 knots of
deep layer shear may support a low end threat for strong to severe
storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado
or two. Trends in forecast guidance will continue to be monitored
as we move forward in time. A Low risk of rip currents continues
through this weekend.
Thanks to the prior system Friday scouring out much of the
moisture across the region it currently looks like the potent
upper trough Sunday and attendant cold front will likely feature
at most a few showers before daybreak Sunday prior to the fronts
passage. In the cold fronts wake, our coldest airmass of the
season is looking to move into the area as strong surface high
pressure works its way in from the central CONUS. High start out
Sunday in the upper 60's to lower 70's before strong cold air
advection takes over by mid to late afternoon causing temperatures
to begin dropping. Sunday nights lows fall into the lower to
middle 30's inland and upper 30's to near 40 along the coast.
Monday will be the coldest day of the season so far with highs
topping out in the lower 50's for most locations, with perhaps a
couple locations over the interior struggling to make it out of
the upper 40's. The first freeze of the season is becoming
increasingly likely across a majority of the area Monday night
into Tuesday morning, excluding the immediate coast. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance along with the NBM have continued to trend
colder, with sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20's to lower
30's being forecast over a majority of the area. Near freezing
temperatures in the lower to middle 30's are currently anticipated
along the immediate coast. This is all thanks to an idealized
radiational cooling setup with surface high pressure settling into
the forecast area Monday night allowing for winds to relax
beneath mostly clear skies. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Fair weather cu develops this afternoon with bases generally 3 to
6 kft. Winds light next 24hrs. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1007 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Light easterly flow prevails through Thursday. Southerly flow Friday
becomes westerly to southwesterly Saturday. A moderate to strong
northwesterly flow develops Sunday through Monday evening in the
wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed
by early Sunday evening through Monday night for the entire
marine area. An occasional gust to gale force is possible Sunday
night into Monday morning. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 79 50 78 62 / 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 78 58 77 65 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 76 60 77 65 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 81 46 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 79 46 79 57 / 0 0 0 10
Camden 79 45 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 81 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 11:19 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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