IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 9:58 PM EST541
FXUS63 KIND 070258
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
958 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight into Friday,
especially the first half of the day
- Much colder starting Sunday with chances for light precipitation
late Saturday through Monday
- Lows in the 20s Sunday night and Monday night, with wind chills
in the teens at times Sunday night into Monday night
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
Forecast is in good shape and only minor adjustments were needed to
match current observations. Late tonight, ahead of a cold front,
winds will become gusty while a chance of rain moves through. The
clouds will also increase through the night, preventing temperatures
from dropping much and are expected to stay where they are as of
late this evening in the mid 40s to near 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
Quiet and seasonably mild weather will continue for the remainder of
the afternoon and evening under the influence of rapidly departing
surface high pressure.
A fast-moving upper trough and associated surface low will approach
from the west overnight into Friday, pushing through the Great Lakes
and dragging a cold front through central Indiana. Ahead of this
front showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two can be
expected, beginning late tonight and continuing into midday Friday
before tapering off from northwest to southeast. Fairly strong
dynamics and slight amounts of elevated instability present the low
thunder threat, but no severe weather is expected.
The strengthening flow will bring increasing breezes overnight and a
few gusts in the 20-25KT range, becoming more frequent after
daybreak on Friday.
Warm advection ahead of the front will keep lows from dropping much
more than into the mid to upper 40s tonight, with highs tomorrow
recovering back into the mid 60s to near 70 before frontal passage.
The cooldown behind the initial front will be relatively minor, as
the stronger cold push does not arrive until later in the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 249 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
Saturday and Saturday night...
Saturday will be dry for at least much of the day with central
Indiana remaining ahead of an approaching surface low and an initial
upper trough. Southwesterly winds will keep a flow of warmer air
into the area, but increasing cloud cover will limit heating some.
Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The area of low pressure will move through the local area Saturday
night. Forcing from that combined with the initial upper trough will
bring some showers to the area. Much the cold air will arrive after
the precipitation from this forcing ends, so will continue with only
rain through Saturday night.
Sunday and Monday...
The large upper trough will build into the area during this period.
Much colder air will accompany it.
Some forcing will continue on Sunday, along with lake
effect/enhanced snow showers. The bulk of the lake snow showers will
remain north of central Indiana, but some may get into the
northeastern portions of the area. Will go with high chance category
PoPs northeast to slight chance PoPs southwest on Sunday.
Some rain will mix in with the snow into at least early afternoon
with temperatures initially in the upper 30s to around 40 many
areas, but temperatures will likely fall some in the afternoon.
Sunday night, the axis of the upper trough will move across the
area, keeping some forcing around. Will have to watch for a stronger
surface trough or perhaps even a small surface low that will move in
on Sunday night, which some models have been hinting at. If this
occurs, forcing will be enhanced and could cause a period of more
widespread light snow, especially north. Some lake effect snow
showers may also impact northeastern areas.
For now will keep mainly chance PoPs around Sunday night, with
highest PoPs northeast.
Weak forcing and continued influence from Lake Michigan will keep
low chances for snow across the northeastern half or so of the area
on Monday.
Lows Sunday night will be in the lower and middle 20s. Highs on
Monday will be in the mid and upper 30s. Gusty winds will make it
feel even colder, with wind chills in the teens at times Sunday
night into Monday.
The expected temperatures Sunday and the initially warm ground
should prevent snow accumulation. Depending on how the lake effect
setup develops and how strong the surface trough is Sunday night,
some light accumulations of snow are possible in northern areas
Sunday night into Monday.
Tuesday into Thursday...
The large upper trough will gradually lift off to the northeast, and
some upper ridging will try to work in behind it. Weak surface
systems may move through, but these won't have any moisture to work
with. Will go with a dry forecast.
Tuesday morning will be cold with lows in the lower 20s, but then
temperatures will rebound with highs in the 50s for Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 709 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
Impacts:
- Gusty winds and low level wind shear developing overnight with
wind shear coming to an end mid morning
- Showers possible late tonight into Friday morning with MVFR
ceilings possible
Discussion:
Clouds have begun moving in this evening and are expected to
increase through the period. Winds will generally be southeasterly
to start, gradually veering southerly and then southwesterly tonight
into early Friday, becoming westerly in the wake of cold front
passage tomorrow.
Ahead of the front, showers will be possible and with it MVFR
ceilings are expected from late tonight to midday. Ceilings may take
a little longer in the day to improve back to VFR.
Winds will become gusty late tonight and last through the rest of
the period, with gusts to around 20-25KT expected. Low level wind
shear will also be a concern with this passing system, with a
threat from early morning to shortly after daybreak.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...KF
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 9:58 PM EST---------------
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