ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 6:43 AM EST009
FXUS61 KILN 051143
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
643 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross east through the region this afternoon.
On Thursday, high pressure will have settled over IN/OH/KY at
daybreak, and pass east during the day. Rain will develop on Friday
ahead of the next cold front which is expected to cross the area
Friday evening, marking the end of any lingering rainfall. A strong
frontal passage on Sunday will bring a rush of cold air behind it,
and it looks to bring us our first glimpse of snow for the season.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong and occasionally gusty southwest winds will be found ahead of
a dry cold frontal passage this afternoon. Winds will shift west and
then northwest as the front passes later in the day, and gusts to
30-35 mph will occur through the afternoon. These strong winds will
advect warmer temperatures to the region, with mid-upper 60s expected
for everyone.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Winds continue to shift northward and lower ahead of an approaching
surface high that settles over the IN/OH/KY tri-state area at
daybreak. The light winds in the center of the circulation and clear
sky cover should promote temperatures to drop within a few degrees of
35 tonight, coolest in rural areas.
The high exits east and southerly flow will be found until the next
front crosses later on Friday.
Highs on Thursday will be a solid 10 degree drop from what we see
today, and some marginal warming will be found in that southerly flow
ahead of Friday's frontal passage. Nighttime lows for Thurs and Fri
will be near 40 or in the low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Friday, rain will overspread the region ahead of the front and
die out as it sweeps through later in the day. This rainfall looks to
primarily fall during daylight hours, starting to the west-northwest
early and ending in the southeast in the evening. Highs Friday will
be early and near 60 degrees along and nw of the I-71 corridor,
possibly reaching the upper 60s closer to Portsmouth before rain
overpowers any further temperature gains.
Saturday looks to be an in-between day and a handful of degrees
cooler than Friday on both high and low temperatures.
Sunday morning is the time to be watching the weather. A very strong
upper low will dig in west of the Ohio Valley, with a surface low
being ejected ahead of it and a strong cold frontal passage during
the day. Current forecast is slow to push the front through and looks
very much like the deterministic ECMWF. The deterministic, quicker,
and stronger GFS is more to my liking. However, with this distinct
and rather large timing differences of the fropa and following cold
air onslaught and introduction of critical thicknesses with precip
noted, the middle ground of the Canadian model seems to be the best
compromise that I can see.
That being said, the front should cross in the morning and any precip
should change to snow in a relatively short time span. Temperatures
also need to be toned down as the current forecast showing a 10
degree rise from morning lows seems unlikely at best. Even using the
in-between Canadian as a basis, the best we should expect for Sunday
is a steady temperature through the day for most of the CWA, an ever
slight 5 degree or so rebound in the southeast, and slowly falling
temperatures in the northwest. Way too much uncertainty for my taste
but I think cooler and snowier is how this will play out. However it
does, this is not a pattern where snowfall should accumulate to any
appreciable amount, just strong cold advection snow showers that
typically peak in their strength during the afternoon.
What isn't in question is the cold air push behind the front. Overnight
lows in the mid 20s will be followed by a chilly Monday with a high
only topping out in the upper 30s, and a Tues morning low in the
lower 20s. We all knew these warmer temperatures couldn't hold out
terribly much longer. It's time for our first taste of winter for
this season.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wind has been picking up from w-e this morning, and with the increase
of surface wind and the exiting lljet, llws will be on the decrease
13Z-15Z, latest at CMH/LCK where the jet maxima will still be nearby
for just a few more hours.
A dry cold front will cross this afternoon/early evening. SW
wind 10-14kt at daybreak will quickly ramp up to a sustained 17-22kt
around 14Z-15Z, peaking as the front approaches and direction becomes
more westerly around 17Z-22Z. At this peak, some sustained winds
should be over 20kt and gusts look to be manageable in the warm
advection to where they shouldn't top 30kt for any appreciable length
of time. Gusts die down closer to 00Z and winds shift nw. They
continue to veer north and, drop to under 10kt closer to 06Z and go
variable at 4-5kt towards daybreak as a surface high settles over the
IN/OH/KY tri-state.
Passing high cloud cover will exit east by afternoon, and some bkn cu
is expected to accompany the front in the afternoon, generally
3500-4kft and dissipating by nightfall.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds along with MVFR conditions in rain is expected
on Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 6:43 AM EST---------------
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