MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:41 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...425
FXUS64 KMOB 301141
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
- Small Craft Advisories will remain in place through Thursday
morning.
- A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through early morning
Thursday.
- The passage of a strong cold front brings the coldest air so
far this season for the latter half of the week. A few
localized interior areas may experience their first frost of
the season Thursday night or Friday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Tonight through Saturday night, drier and cooler air will dominate
the pattern. No rainfall is expected through Saturday night for the
area, looking at the models. Overnight lows will be in the low to
mid 40s Thursday through Saturday morning. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 60s for most of the area as well. Generally, cool and dry
for the next few days for our area, including for Halloween.
Sunday morning through Sunday evening, another low
pressure system moves slowly through the area, enhancing rain
chances. Generally, 20-30% PoPs for Sunday as the system moves
through. The models are a bit uncertain on the amount of rainfall
expected, but generally the GFS is more on the rainier side and Euro
is drier for this system. So, PoPs were left as is with NBM for now.
There is still a lot of model uncertainty in the timing and severity
of the system. It will depend highly on the track of the low, but
not expecting severe weather with this system at the moment due to
the lack of instability. That could change as we get closer to the
weekend.
The low pressure system will move east Sunday evening and dry
weather resumes for the area for the workweek. Highs will be in the
70s with lows in the 40s expected Monday through the rest of the
workweek next week. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
MVFR to VFR ceilings will gradually improve this morning with VFR
conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period. Gusty
northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue through the
afternoon. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
A strong northwesterly flow continues through tonight,
with gale force gusts subsiding to small craft advisory conditions
over the Gulf through the evening. Winds and seas subside on
Thursday, becoming a light offshore flow by Friday. Winds turn more
easterly by Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 65 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 66 47 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 67 49 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 63 38 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 62 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 60 37 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 65 38 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:41 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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