PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 5:43 AM CST699
FXUS63 KPAH 021143
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
543 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- At least patchy frost will be possible throughout the Quad
State late tonight, and a few locations may see a brief,
light freeze.
- After a cool day today, temperatures will climb to normal or
above for the work week and into Saturday.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast
Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
The upper low is located over the Bootheel and is continuing to
push southeast. Some scattered showers continue immediately
north of the low over Mississippi County and they could produce
some more graupel over the southern Purchase Area in the next
few hours. Some light rain could linger past sunrise over
southern portions of west Kentucky, but it should be done by
Noon.
The Freeze Warning continues for Carter and Wayne counties in
southeast Missouri. The only significant clearing is over the
western four counties, but it will take time to dew/frost down
the dewpoints to get below freezing. There are some small,
transient breaks farther east across the Quad State and fog has
been quick to develop. Fortunately, it has been short-lived as
clouds come back. We will keep an eye out for any more
persistent dense fog potential through sunrise, but it will
likely not be widespread or persistent enough to warrant a Dense
Fog Advisory or even a Special Weather Statement.
As the upper low spins well southeast of the area through
tonight, good radiational cooling conditions are likely to
develop throughout the Quad State. With low temperatures in the
lower to middle 30s, frost is likely over most of the region
late tonight into Monday morning. A few places might even
briefly reach the freezing mark.
Zonal flow aloft and predominant south or southwest winds at the
surface are expected through the work week and into Saturday.
This will lead to a nice warm up to near normal by Monday and
then above normal for the rest of the week. There will be
several disturbances passing through the zonal flow aloft and
they will attempt to push cold fronts into the Quad State, but
any interruption of the southerly flow will be short-lived.
Some modest low-level moisture return will be possible ahead of
a disturbance Friday, and that could support a chance of showers
and even thunderstorms from late Thursday night through Friday.
If enough instability develops, the wind fields would likely
support some threat of severe weather on Friday. However,
instability is likely to be limited. We will keep an eye on it
through the week.
There is some potential for another storm system to bring
showers to the region Saturday afternoon and night, and that
would likely come with a more substantial cold frontal passage.
Cooler air may arrive by next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025
There are varied conditions to start the forecast, but KCGI and
KMVN will remain VFR throughout. MVFR ceilings at KPAH and KEVV
will likely spread over KOWB in a few hours. LIFR ceilings and
dense fog are possible anywhere skies clear. Those impacts are
most likely at KEVV. The MVFR ceilings may persist through the
morning before lifting or scattering out. They could even linger
into the afternoon. All sites should be VFR for the second half
of the forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for MOZ100-107.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 5:43 AM CST---------------
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