IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 3:09 AM EST256
FXUS63 KIND 020809
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
309 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy low lying fog across the northern Wabash Valley this morning
- Dry weather is expected Sunday through at least Thursday, amid
seasonably cool temperatures
- Rain chances increase by Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
An upper low is continuing to push southeastward, with moderate
moisture convergence downstream. This has led to widespread cloud
cover and isolated light showers over SE portions of central Indiana
overnight. Upstream of the cloud cover is a weak area of dry air
advection and low level mixing, leading to clearing of skies and
much colder overnight conditions. This has created a dichotomy of
temperatures across central Indiana with lows over SE portions of
the area expected to remain in the low 40s, whereas NW central
Indiana is expected to fall into the upper 20s. Clearing skies and
calm winds will also likely favor fog development over low lying
areas, primarily within the northern Wabash Valley.
The aforementioned upper low is expected to pass to the west of
central Indiana throughout the day, leading to veering winds in the
low levels and near seasonal temperatures. Ridging is expected to
build west of the area, of which could create a slight east to west
temperature gradient with highs ranging from upper 50s (west) to low
50s (east) across the state. Dew points in the low to mid 30s will
likely keep our slightly cooler than normal lows with temperatures
falling into the low to mid 30s overnight.
Another upper low over Canada is expected to pass well to the north
tonight. There is some weak frontogenetic forcing beneath this upper
low, of which could lead to some elevated moisture convergence and
slight increases in upper level cloud cover late in the period.
Surface conditions are unlikely to be impacted by this outside of a
wind shift from southerly to westerly.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement showing a prevailing
quasi-zonal and progressive jet pattern. A storm track mainly to our
north combined with little low-level moisture return will limit
precipitation chances this week. Some of the storm systems passing
to our north may drag a succession of cold fronts across Indiana
this week, Monday and Wednesday respectively. Little aside from a
wind shift and cooler temperatures appears likely. Breezy
southwesterly flow ahead of the front on Wednesday may allow for a
quick rebound to warmer-than-average temperatures with highs in
the 60s.
Guidance is hinting at a deeper trough taking shape over the western
US around midweek. Though deterministic guidance differs in the
details, they generally show lee cyclogenesis over the northern
Plains with an increasing low-level jet and northward mass
response. This would represent the first real push of Gulf
moisture northward in a while. Despite the low likely passing to
our north similar to the ones before it, rain chances appear much
better on Friday.
This system is still five days out, however, and key details need
to be ironed out within guidance. Latest trends have been towards
a less-amplified parent trough with lower overall impacts. Still,
enough of a signal remains to carry chance to likely PoPs on
Friday. Guidance also hints at second trough diving southward
behind the one on Friday, which may allow precipitation chances to
continue into the weekend.
Guidance depicts the pattern potentially becoming a bit more
amplified towards the end of the week and into next weekend.
Ensemble spread increases substantially after the Friday system.
Forecast uncertainty after Friday is high, so take deterministic
guidance output with a decently large grain of salt.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025
Impacts:
-MVFR cigs at BMG 07Z to 15Z
-MVFR to IFR vsbys at HUF/LAF 11Z to 13Z due to fog
-Occasional light rain at BMG through 12Z
Discussion:
A trough is passing to the east, with a region of MVFR ceilings and
isolated light showers out in front. This is currently only
impacting KBMG, but should improve late this morning. Behind this
trough skies are clearing, of which could lead to some low lying fog
at KLAF and KHUF. Today, winds will begin out of the NW, but veer
consistently throughout the day ending at southerly this evening.
Winds should remain less than 10 kt through the TAF period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 3:09 AM EST---------------
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