LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:29 AM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...970
FXUS64 KLIX 271129 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
- Areas of fog are expected tonight into tomorrow morning, with
locally dense fog possible. Those with travel plans during the
early morning hours should be prepared for sudden changes in
visibility. Allow extra commuting time.
- Cooler and drier conditions are expected through the work week,
with a substantial cooldown coming for the second half of the
week behind a reinforcing cold front.
- Hazardous marine conditions is forecast to return midweek
after the passage of a reinforcing cold front late Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
With the cold front to our east, most of the showers and storms
have exited the area. There is a very thin line of showers that is
trailing on the edge of the cold front but that should lose
whatever little steam it has left pretty soon.
Biggest short term concern is the potential for fog overnight into
tomorrow morning. With widespread 1-3+ inches of areal rainfall
from earlier today, there's plenty of moisture to work with and
it'll likely get stuck by the overnight inversion along with light
winds. Current thinking is the fog overall it won't be widespread
and dense enough to necessitate a dense fog advisory, but there
is definitely potential for locally dense fog at times. Otherwise
it'll generally be near normal with lows in the 60s and highs in
the upper 70s/near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Next big front forecast to move through the area will be late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This front is going to be associated
with a deep closed upper level low system. While this front is
stronger in terms of how much cooler air it'll bring the in the
area, the potential for heavy rainfall and severe doesn't seem to
be too good right now. There's an okay amount of PW (around the to
slightly above the current average for this time of year) and
shear but the instability is almost nonexistent (<250 J/kg).
Expecting mostly showers and any storms to be progressive so while
the chances of rain are decent (50-70%), the overall amounts will
likely be less than an inch. In the wake of this reinforcing cold
front, temperatures will take a dive to more fall like
temperatures with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Visibilities this morning have been tricky with fog and low
stratus developing and dissipating and redeveloping over local
terminals. Went a bit more optimistic with fog low and stratus
for the rest of the morning as shortly after sunrise any VIS/CIG
issues will quickly resolve. VFR conditions are then expected
through the day and into the evening. More VIS issues will be
possible for BTR, MCB, and possibly HUM...ASD...and HDC Tuesday
morning. Was a bit conservative, but winds will be lighter and
residual moisture from recent heavy rains may help localized fog
develop. Winds will continue to be northerly and light. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
With the departure of a cold front from the area, winds should
begin to relax a bit and begin to turn to offshore flow through
Tuesday. Another stronger reinforcing cold front is then forecast
to move through the coastal waters late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. Tightening pressure gradient will bring hazardous
conditions to the coastal waters mid week. Small craft advisories
will be likely needed and cannot rule out the potential for gale
warnings as well. Conditions should begin to improve by Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 77 55 78 51 / 0 0 10 80
BTR 81 58 82 53 / 0 0 10 80
ASD 80 56 78 53 / 0 0 0 70
MSY 83 63 82 58 / 0 0 0 70
GPT 79 58 77 56 / 0 0 0 60
PQL 81 55 77 53 / 0 0 0 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...BL
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:29 AM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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