CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:34 AM EST320
FXUS61 KCLE 021134
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
634 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes today will depart
towards the New England Coast tonight. A cold front will sweep
eastward across the region Monday. High pressure will build
back in Monday night through Tuesday night. A weak cold front
will drop southward across the region Wednesday into Wednesday
evening
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The overall message with our forecast is relatively quiet
weather is expected today through tomorrow. There is a weak
upper level low over the Lower Ohio Valley this morning that
will track eastward towards the Carolina Coast by Monday. This
upper level system will toss some high and mid level clouds up
into central and northern Ohio today. There is a weak area of
high pressure over the central and eastern Great Lakes region
this morning. This high pressure system will bring a fairly nice
day today with a little more sunshine across the area. High
temperatures this afternoon will climb into the middle and upper
50s which is very seaonable for the first day of November.
Winds will be light around 5 mph from the souther later today.
High pressure will move eastward towards the East Coast tonight.
A rather vigorous upper level trough will quickly move across
the Great Lakes on Monday. A cold front will sweep from west to
east across the region Monday. This quick moving front will not
really impact our temperatures but it will bring an uptick in
windy conditions as it blows through on Monday. Southwesterly
winds will start to increase very early Monday morning over
NWOH. The gusty winds will spread over the rest of the area
later Monday morning into the afternoon. Winds will generally be
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible during the midday
and afternoon Monday. This front will be limited on moisture
and move through dry for most of the area. The chance of a few
rain showers will be confine for far NEOH and NWPA Monday. Skies
on Monday will be partly cloudy towards central Ohio and
variable clouds with some sun for areas towards NEOH and NWPA.
Seasonable high temperatures are expected again on Monday in the
middle to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The general upper level flow will consist of fast westerlies
over the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley early next week. An
area of high pressure will build in over the Ohio Valley Monday
night behind the windy front. This high pressure system will
continue to dominate our weather on Tuesday as it moves slowly
eastward across the Appalachians into the Mid- Atlantic regions.
Fair skies with sunshine and a few passing clouds are expected
on Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will once again will be
near our seasonable averages for early November in the middle to
upper 50s. A weak cold front will try to drop southward across
the lower Great Lakes and into our area late Wednesday into the
evening. This front will also be somewhat limited on moisture
and the best lift may stay just north and east of our area as it
passes through. There will be chances for rain showers with this
weak cold front with the greater POPs mainly over NEOH and
NWPA. Ahead of the front Wednesday, high temperatures will climb
a little warmer into the upper 50s and lower 60s. There could
be a brief window for some scattered lake effect rain showers
Wednesday night around the Snowbelt region before the drier air
moves in. High pressure over the Upper Midwest will start to
build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another area of high pressure is expected to bring fair weather
on Thursday as it tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley. High
temps will be just a touch cooler on Thursday ranging from the
lower to middle 50s. The latest 00z model guidance is starting
to come into some agreement of the potential of a stronger cold
front or a series of cold fronts moving through the region by
the end of the week into next weekend. The timing and overall
evolution of the weather system is still quiet uncertain at this
time. But the general indication amongst the model guidance
shows a series of troughs digging out a larger, deeper upper
level trough potentially over the eastern U.S next week.
Widespread rain chances will be very possible with the stronger
cold fronts followed by some colder air potentially moving over
the Great Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Some isolated fog/mist has developed early this morning, though
is currently not impacting any TAF sites and should mix out
fairly quickly 13-14z. Otherwise, VFR is expected through the
TAF period. A mid-level cloud deck is blossoming over most of
the area this morning and will take until late afternoon or
evening to clear back out...these clouds will are and will
continue to be thick enough to bring ceilings, potentially as
low as 5,000 feet at times.
Winds are light and variable out of the gate this morning and
will slowly increase to 4-8kt out of a south-souhtwest direction
this afternoon. Winds will continue gradually increasing to
6-12kt tonight, strongest at TOL, CLE, and ERI by dawn Monday. A
40kt low level jet will translate northeast across Northwest OH,
Lake Erie, and locations near the lake (including CLE and ERI)
between 9z-18z Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Mixing
should quickly deepen after 13z, leaving a brief window for
low-level wind shear early in the day when a near-surface
inversion persists. Given the jet arrives quickest at TOL,
confidence in a window of LLWS is highest there and is included
in the TAF. Current thinking is the stronger jet doesn't quite
push into CLE and ERI until after mixing starts improving, so
far now left the LLWS out of those TAFs.
Outlook...A cold front may bring wind gusts up to 30kt on
Monday, especially near the eastern Lake Erie shoreline. This
will be a mainly dry front with VFR favored to persist. Brief
non-VFR and gusty winds are possible Wednesday or Wednesday
night as the next cold front moves through.
&&
.MARINE...
It will be an active week of marine weather across Lake Erie,
with periodic headlines likely beginning early Monday. Out of
the gate, the axis of a broad surface ridge will be nearly
overhead today providing for tranquil marine conditions. Winds
will generally be out of the southwest today and will remain
under 15kt with waves 2 feet or less through this evening. Lake
effect has struggled to get going overnight and removed the
lingering waterspout mention for this morning.
Southwest winds ramp up quickly overnight tonight into Monday
morning ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the lake
Monday afternoon, veering winds to a west-northwest direction
Monday evening. Continuing to expect a good period of 20-30kt
sustained winds, highest just ahead of and then immediately
behind the front, with 30-35kt gusts likely. Waves will
increase rapidly late tonight into Monday, peaking on Monday at
2-5 feet west of the Islands and 6-10 feet east of the Islands.
There is potential for a brief period of sustained gales to 35kt
with gusts to 40kt mainly east of the OH/PA border in close
proximity to the frontal passage, with a slight upward trend in
the wind forecast in recent model guidance. Probabilistic NBM
guidance suggests the probability for a sustained gale on the
east end is in the 40-60% range, dropping to 10-30% in the Ohio
waters east of the Islands. A Gale Watch was considered with
this forecast package, though in collaboration with NWS BUF and
Environment Canada held off as confidence is just slightly lower
than we'd like for a watch at this time. Ultimately, we will
need Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore zones starting
late tonight or early Monday, with these advisories likely
coming down from west to east Monday night and Tuesday. Internal
machine learning probabilistic water level guidance, along with
the deterministic LEOFS forecast, suggest fairly high
confidence in water levels dipping as much as a foot below low
water datum on Monday at Toledo, with lower potential for values
as much as 2-3 feet below datum. A Low Water Advisory will
likely be needed, given the critical mark for safe navigation
is 2 inches below low water datum. Trends will be monitored for
a potential gale headline on the east end. Expect these
headlines to be issued by late this afternoon where/as needed.
The pattern will remain active this week...after a lull in
conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night (though still with 1-3 or
2-4 foot waves east of the Islands), another cold front crosses
the lake on Wednesday with a period of elevated winds and a wind
shift from southwest to northwest. The next system/cold front
arrives Friday. It is likely we will need Small Craft Advisories
for both systems with brief lulls without headlines in between.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:34 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
