PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:33 AM CDT218
FXUS63 KPAH 301133
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Northwesterly winds will gust 15-25mph this morning and then
gradually diminish this afternoon.
- A little frost on the pumpkin will be possible tonight in the
valleys of southeast Missouri.
- Below normal temperatures will continue through Monday with
the coolest air expected over the weekend. A few light showers
will be possible over the weekend.
- South winds return next week, and temperatures will climb back
above normal for Wednesday and possibly next Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
The pesky low pressure system will spin off to the east of the
Quad State this morning, resulting in clearing skies and gusty
northwest winds. Gusts will be strongest in the morning and then
diminish in the afternoon as the low moves farther away. The
pressure gradient will weaken, but still support a light west or
northwest wind tonight. Winds are most likely to become calm in
the valleys of southeast Missouri, where some patchy frost will
be possible.
A closed upper low will slide south down the Mississippi Valley
and through the Quad State this weekend. While most guidance has
latched onto this system, the exact path, timing, and intensity
are still quite varied. There will be very little moisture
available to the system and the forcing will be weak, so PoPs
will remain in the 20-30% range, with the best chance over west
Kentucky Saturday evening. The only QPF is a hundredth or two
in the southern Pennyrile Saturday evening. Clouds will help
hold high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s Saturday and
Sunday which is nearly 10 degrees below normal.
The upper low will slowly move eastward across the Gulf Coast
early next week and eventually push out to sea. Meanwhile, the
Quad State will have relatively weak northwest flow aloft, as
heights rise over the region. South winds will return Wednesday
which will lead to a nice warm up to the middle and upper 60s.
There is increasing evidence that a storm system will move
southeast through the Great Lakes and push a weak, dry cold
front through the Quad State Wednesday night into next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025
The TAFs are VFR. Northwest winds will gust to around 20kts
throughout the day at all sites. Winds will come down to around
5kts from the west tonight and that should prevent fog from
forming.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:33 AM CDT---------------
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