LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:44 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...230
FXUS63 KLMK 301044
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* One last day of damp and dreary weather. Light rain will
gradually taper off from west to east throughout today. Expect
improving conditions later this afternoon.
* Breezy northwest winds expected today, with gusts of 25 mph
possible. Winds will relax by this evening.
* Cool and dry for Halloween, but evening temps will be chilly in
the 40s.
* Another upper level low will rotate through this weekend bringing
a slight chance of showers late Saturday and into Sunday. A
drier pattern sets up for much of next of week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Early this morning, the sfc low is crossing our Bluegrass region and
will continue to slide northeast over the coming hours. Regional
radar mosaic shows a dry slot where the sfc low is located, with
the precip shield rotating counter-clockwise around the LEX metro.
Light precip over our area has shifted west of I-65 on the backside
of the low, closer to the 850 LLJ that is situated from IND to PAH.
For the rest of the morning, we'll see this backside precip shield
shift eastward as the sfc low moves out of the region. We'll see
gradual improvements through the day from west to east, and finally
an end to the dreary and damp weather we have been stuck in over the
past few days. Light precip will linger in our eastern counties
through much of the day, though expect the drier trend and improving
weather eventually making it that far east by later this afternoon
or early evening.
Besides the precip gradually tapering off from west to east today,
winds will be elevated again today due to the sfc pressure gradient
from the sfc low. Winds from the northwest will peak during the
daylight hours, with gusts of 25 mph or greater possible.
Temps will be somewhat tricky today given multiple parameters at
play, such as the breezy northwest winds, lingering precip, and
diminishing cloud cover later. As a result, temps will range from
near 60 in our far western CWA, to near 50 in our far eastern CWA.
Confidence on temps today is lower than usual due to the different
factors going on that can impact the forecast.
By tonight, dry weather is expected for the entire area, with
clearing skycover overhead. Winds will also relax by this evening
with the sfc pressure gradient weakening, which will lead to a good
radiational cooling night influencing temps to bottom out in the
upper 30s for most. Could see mid-30s in our typical cool spots, but
low-40s in the metro zones.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
===== Friday - Weekend =====
The upper level pattern will become slightly more zonal on Friday as
the upper low shifts over New England. However, a secondary upper
trough will be deepening over the upper Midwest during the day,
which will eventually dip south across the Ohio/TN Valleys over the
weekend.
Friday will feature dry weather for our area as moisture wrapped up
in the NE upper low shifts further away. However, a sfc pressure
gradient will support breezy westerly winds through the day,
possibly with gusts exceeding 20-25 mph. The HREF indicates a 40-50%
chance for wind gusts to exceed 20 mph for areas east of I-65 and
the Cumberland Pkwy. The 100-member LREF has even stronger
indications, with probability of exceeding 25 mph ranging between 60-
80% for the aforementioned area. Temps will peak in the upper 50 to
low 60s. Winds are expected to be relaxing by the time Trick-or-
Treat activity ramps up Friday evening, and fortunately dry weather
is forecast.
Clouds will be on the increase for Saturday as the second upper low
begins to advect vorticity and moisture over the region. Moisture
will not be very impressive with this wave, with PWATs possibly
remaining under 0.8". While there will be a slight chance (less than
25%) for some light precip Saturday night and Sunday morning, model
soundings do suggest dry air between the sfc up to at least 850mb
that would evaporate most precip.
For the rest of the weekend, temps are expected to peak in the upper
50s and low 60s. Morning lows will be chilly with upper 30s to low
40s.
===== Monday - Next Week =====
The upper low is forecast to dig further south and move off the
FL/GA coast by early next week. This will set up an upper ridge
pattern across the western two-thirds of the US by Monday, with
broad sfc high pressure leading to a drier trend for next week. We
will likely remain under upper level NW flow through much of next
week, though our daily highs will be on par for this time of year
with low to mid 60s each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
Regional mosaic radar shows the precip shield rotating across the
area, with MVFR and IFR conditions ongoing. These flight
restrictions will continue for a few more hours at BWG and SDF, and
even longer at LEX as the precip shield gradually rotates east
through the day. Winds are expected to become breezy from the NW,
possibly with gusts up to 20 kts. We'll see VFR conditions spread
west to east through the period, and all terminals will return to
VFR by this evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:44 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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