JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:50 AM EDT625
FXUS63 KJKL 291150 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
750 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread chilly rain showers will continue through the day, as
a potent weather system moves through the region. Lighter
showers are expected to linger into Thursday/Thursday night
along with brisk winds.
- Expect the cool temperatures lasting through early next week.
Daily high temperatures will mainly stay in the low to mid 50s.
- Frost may develop in the valleys Friday night into Saturday
morning, mainly for areas along and west of I-75.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids
along with pushing the higher PoPs east a bit faster this morning.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky fully under the influence
of the approaching strong (near 1000 mb) low over western
Tennessee. This has brought a renewed surge of moisture to the
area manifesting the light to moderate showers through the JKL
forecast area this night. East winds of 5 to 10 mph are helping to
keep a cool air mass in place. As such, temperatures (and
dewpoints - with near 100 percent humidity) vary from the mid 40s
northeast to the lower 50s near Lake Cumberland.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
surprisingly good agreement aloft through the short term portion
of the forecast - impressive considering the dynamic pattern
affecting the region through Thursday night. They all depict a
seasonably very deep closed low trough swinging into the western
Tennessee Valley and northern portion of the Deep South this
morning. At the same time, another flat, west to east, closed
low trough is located over Lake Erie in the process of being
absorbed by the southern tough. In a brief Fuji-wara manner the
northern trough approaches enough to consolidate into a larger
and still very deep one over eastern Tennessee tonight before
quickly lifting northeast along the spine of the southern
Appalachians and past Kentucky on Thursday. The core of this
system is quite robust and will maintain lift over eastern parts
of the state through the period. The continued small spread among
the models bolsters using the NBM as the starting point of the
forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly to include
some of the PoP details from the latest CAMs consensus guidance
through Thursday evening.
Sensible weather features cool and wet weather today into Thursday
as a strong sfc low approaches from the south with northeasterly
winds locking in the colder air for the JKL CWA. This low cuts
northeast through this part of Kentucky later tonight prolonging
the light to moderate, chilly, rain showers. As the system passes
off to the northeast on Thursday cooler air is pulled in on its
backside with a non-trivial chance for some flakes not too far off
the sfc - possibly making it to the sfc that night in the highest
eastern terrain. In general, an inch to an inch and a half of
rain can be expected from this low but probably not enough to
cause flooding unless there is some extensive training of the more
convective cells. Accordingly, we continue to hold off on any
headlines with this system - still marveling at what could have
been if we were deeper in the cold season.
The changes to the NBM starting point were again primarily
focused on adding in more details for the PoPs from the latest
CAMs consensus through the period. Given very moist environment
there was very little need to adjust the T or Td grids from the
NBM - except to limit the drop off in temps tonight a bit more due
to it being on the outlier cold side of the spread.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 535 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
The main change to the extended forecast this morning were to
again add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures late
in the week and starting next week. Otherwise, as the main system
pulls away early in the period, there may be enough cold air
through the column coincident with lingering pcpn for some snow
showers mixing in for the highest elevations on Thursday night and
Friday morning.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Model guidance agrees on an amplified pattern to continue across
the CONUS into next week. Long wave troughing will remain in place
through the majority of the extended portion of the forecast east
of the Plains. This will result in continued cooler than normal
conditions across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, along with some
potential bouts of unsettled weather, as individual short wave
troughs/vort maxes traverse the flow.
An upper level low will start out churning over the vicinity of
eastern Kentucky on Thursday, keeping one more day of soggy
conditions in place, although the deeper associated moisture and
forcing will have exited the area, so any lingering showers will
be lighter in nature. Low level flow will be veering to the west
and northwest. This, in combination with the clouds and nearby
shower activity will allow for a particularly cool day, with highs
struggling to make it into the lower 50s. The upslope flow will
promote a few showers hanging on Thursday night, with activity
becoming more confined to the southeastern terrain with time.
Some 500 mb height recovery will generally follow Friday into
Saturday, keeping mainly dry conditions in place across the
Commonwealth. This will result in another chance of a frost in the
valleys early Saturday morning, particularly along and west of
I-75. Given that dew points will be above freezing, fog will
likely be more prevalent where enough clearing takes place, so
have played this up more in the forecast.
Meanwhile, additional short wave energy will be inbound from the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Model spread increases late this
weekend and into next week regarding the evolution of these
features. As such, confidence drops off quite a bit after
Saturday, with the blended PoPs having trended downward a bit
compared to yesterday. In general, at least small chance PoPs
(20-30%) return across eastern Kentucky, with the peak being on
Monday. Temperatures will average in the 5 to 10 degree below
normal range into early next week, with highs mainly in the mid to
upper 50s, and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
Terminals range from MVFR to low end VFR at the 12Z TAF issuance.
Ceilings will likely lower even further from the west to east
into mid morning. Rain showers are now widespread across the
forecast area. The combination of rain, low clouds, and fog are
expected to bring prolonged Poor aviation conditions with
IFR at times through the day, then CIGs will probably lower down
to IFR to LIFR tonight. Winds will be mainly east to northeast at
10 kts or so through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:50 AM EDT---------------
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