ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:34 PM EDT900
FXUS61 KILN 262334
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
734 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Although a few stray light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out in parts of northern Kentucky through Monday, high pressure will
allow most spots to remain dry through early this week. Near normal
temperatures will prevail through the first half of the week before
rain chances increase Wednesday through Thursday. Cooler air will
settle into the region for the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level low to migrate slowly from the Southern Plains into the
Lower MS Valley under a ridge that moves into the Great Lakes.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to be suppressed south a bit,
while a narrow axis of higher PWAT air and weak convergence/forcing
has led to some very light showers or sprinkles from a mid deck
across northern Kentucky. The trend of drying to continue thru the
evening with the threat for a sprinkle/light shower decreases.
Temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s north where clear
skies and light winds will promote more favorable radiational cooling
conditions. Further south across northern Kentucky lows are expected
to be in the lower and middle 40s where some mid and high clouds
linger.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level low over the Lower MS Valley positioned under a ridge over
the Great Lakes will drift east across the TN Vly Monday/Monday
night. Still some variability being observed in the guidance
regarding the track of this system, the latest trends continue to
suggest that rain should stay south of the area Monday, with drier
air settling in from the northeast. ECMWF has been the farthest
north with the northern periphery of pcpn for this time frame. ECMWF
ensemble supports a drier solution over the deterministic solution.
Have trended NBM solution drier for Monday - using a blend of
HREF/NBM. High temperatures to range between 60 and 65.
Will allow low chance pops for light rain across the far south
Monday night as the low opens up and shifts east. Again have used a
blend of HREF/NBM which cuts the northern extent of the rain
chances. Lows to range from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
To start the long term period, the local area is between two
troughs, one over the Northeast US and the other diving through the
Plains toward the lower Ohio Valley. There will be a band of
moisture stretching northwest from a low pressure off the Carolina
coast back into the local area. While forcing is a weak, enough
moisture is likely present to result in some scattered light rain
across portions of Indiana, northern Kentucky and southern Ohio
Tuesday. This is currently advertised best when looking at the 12Z
3km NAM although that may be overdone. Some of the other 12Z CAMs
are completely dry, resulting in lower confidence. Better forcing
arrives from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
western trough advances farther southeast. This results in steadily
higher PoPs into Wednesday with the highest probabilities across the
tri-state and the Ohio River locals.
Confidence has continued to increase on a multi-day rain event as
the low pressure slowly pivots from the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday
into the Mid-Atlantic Friday. The local area will be on the north
side of the low pressure Wednesday as bands of light to moderate
rain spread from south to north. As the low pressure moves eastward
Thursday, the western side of the rain bands will linger before
drier air gradually works in from the west Thursday night into
Friday. Given the variability of the low pressure path late in week,
rainfall chances remain in the forecast on Friday, with the ECMWF
ensembles slower with the exiting moisture. As the GFS and its
ensembles have trended closer to the ECMWF suite, NBM guidance for
24-hour rainfall amounts over 1" have increased across Wednesday and
Thursday. The high chances (50-60%) are currently placed across
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, perhaps once again missing the
drought areas across western Ohio (currently at 10-20% chance for
1").
The mostly dry period Friday into Saturday is likely short-lived as
another shortwave quickly moves through the Midwest and into the
Ohio Valley late Saturday. As a result, low PoPs continue to be
mentioned in the forecast.
As for the temperatures, Tuesday is likely to be the "warmest" day
of the week with temperatures limited to the lower 60s. Given the
extensive cloudiness and persistent rainfall, high temperatures will
struggle into the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. If the rainfall is
persistent enough, some locations may not even reach the 50s. Friday
likely won't see much improvement as a cooler air mass behind the
low pressure keeps temperatures lower, even if rain is lighter or
completely gone. This same air mass lingers into the weekend ahead
of the next system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast
period. Mid to high clouds cover much of the area this evening,
thickest toward the KCVG/KLUK terminals. This will continue to be the
trend through Monday afternoon, with predominantly mid to high
clouds especially over the southern terminals. East winds will
persist through the period as well, with the potential for wind gusts
of 16 to 20 kt from Monday late morning into the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities possible
Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...BPP
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:34 PM EDT---------------
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