IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:29 PM EDT141
FXUS63 KIWX 261829
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
229 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably cool and dry weather continues through Tuesday.
- Rain is possible (30-60%) at times Wednesday through Friday
with cool temperatures continuing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Seasonably cool temperatures and dry low level easterly flow to
persist through Tuesday on the southern fringes of a prominent upper
ridge. The low level height gradient does tighten a bit into Monday
and Tuesday with diurnally driven gusts approaching 20 mph. Skies
will generally trend mostly clear to partly cloudy otherwise as some
mid-high level cloud cover sneaks in at times on the northern
periphery of a weak low meandering east into the TN Valley.
Model guidance agrees on an incoming northern pacific jet closing
off an upper low into the western OH/TN Valleys Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. This feature then interacts in some fashion
with a Northeast CONUS upper low and lifts northward with some
deepening to the sfc reflection noted in guidance Thursday into
early Friday. The 12z trend overall was for a trend toward the
farther south and east solution with more appreciable rainfall
within the system deformation axis pivoting around the area
(drier). Still plenty of spread in ensembles given the
uncertainties in these upper low mergers. Thus, opted not to
deviate from NBM broadbrush chance PoPs mid-late week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Persistent east flow is expected through the TAF period on the
southern edge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes.
Cannot rule out patchy ground fog prior to daybreak, with some
Lake Erie moisture transport.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:29 PM EDT---------------
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