PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:38 AM CDT542
FXUS63 KPAH 280638
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
138 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of mist and drizzle this morning will eventually give
way to another period of steady rain late today through
Wednesday. Additional rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is
expected.
- Lingering light rain showers remain possible on Thursday
before drier weather with breaks of sun returns to end the
week. Additional low rain shower chances arrives Saturday
night into Sunday.
- Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the
weekend, but some moderation is expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
The back edge of a shortwave trough with negative vorticity
advection is moving across the FA this morning, allowing for a lull
to occur ahead of the next disturbance. The low-levels in the column
remain extremely saturated due to low stratus, with areas of mist
and drizzle. Patchy fog will also be possible from 09-14z as shallow
mixing during the day will allow for some improvement with ceilings
gradually rising. While scattered light rain showers will begin to
increase in coverage during the afternoon hours from the west, it
will not be until this evening into Wednesday morning when the next
round of steady stratiform rain will impact the FA.
Sfc low pressure deepens and pivots south across eastern Arkansas
beneath a potent 500 mb trough. Rain will turn moderate at times
overnight into Wednesday as an area of 700 mb FGEN moves north from
Tennessee. PWATs are not terribly impressive around 1.00 to 1.15
inches with a warm cloud depth layer around 6-7 kft AGL. This should
mitigate any flooding concerns similar to Sunday as the HREF
supports only 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain over a 3-hour period. In
fact, FFG indicates it would take 2 to 3 inches over the same period
to cause flooding concerns. Overall, another 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall is forecast across most of the FA. With that said, a sharp
gradient near and north of I-64 may result in less rainfall due to
some mesoscale subsidence with the better lift over southeast
Missouri and western Kentucky.
By Wednesday evening, the heaviest rainfall will be east of the FA.
Lingering rain showers remain possible through Thursday morning as
some residual low-level moisture remains in place with a 500 mb vort
max moving across southwest Indiana. Northwesterly flow with broad
troughing aloft then allows for the column to dry out Thursday
afternoon, with increasing breaks of sun into Friday. Another trough
is progged to moves through Saturday night into Sunday, but moisture
still looks to be meager with only a few light rain showers.
Temperatures remain unseasonably cool through the weekend, but there
are some signs of moderation next week as sfc high pressure builds
over the eastern CONUS with southerly return flow. Daily high
temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s with the coldest
mornings progged for Friday morning through Sunday morning in the
mid to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Low stratus, fog, and occasional drizzle will keep cigs and/or
vsbys restricted to IFR or LIFR levels for the great majority
of the forecast period. Confidence in the fog forecast is low,
while the ceiling forecast is medium to high. There may be some
slight improvement to low MVFR cigs late in the forecast period
(18-24z window) especially west of the Wabash River and KY
Pennyrile. Light/calm winds overnight will become light from the
E at 4-7 kts after 15-18z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:38 AM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
