JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 9:38 PM EDT936
FXUS63 KJKL 290138
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
938 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain will move into eastern Kentucky late tonight and
continue through Wednesday, bringing soggy conditions. Lighter
showers are expected to linger into Thursday/Thursday night.
- Expect cool temperatures lasting through early next week. Daily
high temperatures will mainly stay in the low to mid-50s.
- Frost may develop in valleys Friday night into Saturday morning,
especially for areas along and west of I-75.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
Forecast remains on track late this evening. A few sprinkles are
lifting through the area, especially northeast of KY-15 at update
time, but most places should be dry through midnight. Temperatures
are settling in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
UPDATE Issued at 555 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A quiet, cool and cloud evening continues over eastern Kentucky at
update issuance. While a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out, most
locations will remain dry through midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
The latest surface analysis indicates that the preceding weather
system has continued its eastward progression and is now offshore of
the Atlantic Seaboard. Concurrently, a new cyclonic system is
emerging to the west, with its associated surface low pressure
center tracking across the Red River Valley region of northern Texas
and southern Oklahoma. This feature is advancing along a weak cold
front extending south from an occluding surface feature positioned
over central Canada. Our area is currently situated between these
two features, with a surface high pressure ridge to the north. This
pattern is allowing for partial sky clearing and warming
temperatures over the areas situated along and north of the Mountain
Parkway. However, areas to the south are experiencing suppressed
surface temperatures due to persistent, deep cloud cover limiting
solar heating.
Throughout the remainder of the day, weak upper-level ridging and
concurrent surface high pressure will attempt to dissipate the
widespread cloud shield. Maximum temperatures are anticipated to
remain slightly cool, except in areas that experience sustained
afternoon sunshine. Forecast high temperatures are expected to reach
the upper 50s, with the sunniest locations possibly nudging into the
lower 60s.
This upper-level ridging will begin to break down rapidly this
afternoon as a negatively tilted shortwave trough and its
corresponding jet streak pivot toward the region. As the trough
pivots through the afternoon and into the early evening, an upper-
level closed circulation is forecast to develop and subsequently
dive into the Ozarks late tonight. At the surface, the low pressure
center will track northeastward from the Red River Valley, through
Arkansas, and eventually into the West Tennessee and Western
Kentucky region. This dynamic process, coupled with increasing
moisture, will lead to an increase in widespread rain showers across
the Commonwealth during the overnight hours.
By Wednesday morning, the occluded surface low is forecast to be
over West Tennessee and Western Kentucky, with continuous stratiform
precipitation covering the entire Commonwealth. As the low tracks
through Tennessee during the day, the region will be in the
deformation zone of the mature cyclone. Therefore, showers are
forecast to be abundant and persistent throughout Wednesday and into
the remainder of the forecast period.
Since the low pressure track has shifted slightly further south in
recent model forecasts, QPF totals have been slightly reduced. The
storm total QPF for the duration of this event is now anticipated to
be a widespread 1.25 to 1.40, with potential localized heavier
amounts across the central portion of the CWA from Rockcastle County
northeastward toward the West Virginia border. Due to favorable
antecedent conditions, the likelihood of heavy rainfall rates and
associated hydrological concerns is minimized. Wednesdays
temperatures will be notably cooler due to persistent overcast
conditions and the advection of cool air from a persistent east-
northeasterly surface flow, limiting maximum temperatures to the low
to mid 50s.
An active weather pattern is expected. A brief lull in activity is
forecast for today, but an approaching mid-latitude cyclone will
bring widespread showers from late tonight through the end of the
period. Temperatures will remain near seasonal today but will be
cooler tomorrow, with overnight lows staying relatively mild due to
the presence of persistent cloud cover.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
Model guidance agrees on an amplified pattern to continue across
the CONUS into next week. Long wave troughing will remain in place
through the majority of the extended portion of the forecast east
of the Plains. This will result in continued cooler than normal
conditions across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, along with some
potential bouts of unsettled weather, as individual short wave
troughs/vort maxes traverse the flow.
An upper level low will start out churning over the vicinity of
eastern Kentucky on Thursday, keeping one more day of soggy
conditions in place, although the deeper associated moisture and
forcing will have exited the area, so any lingering showers will
be lighter in nature. Low level flow will be veering to the west
and northwest. This, in combination with the clouds and nearby
shower activity will allow for a particularly cool day, with highs
struggling to make it into the lower 50s. The upslope flow will
promote a few showers hanging on Thursday night, with activity
becoming more confined to the southeastern terrain with time.
Some 500 mb height recovery will generally follow Friday into
Saturday, keeping mainly dry conditions in place across the
Commonwealth. This will result in another chance of a frost in the
valleys early Saturday morning, particularly along and west of
I-75. Given that dew points will be above freezing, fog will
likely be more prevalent where enough clearing takes place, so
have played this up more in the forecast.
Meanwhile, additional short wave energy will be inbound from the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Model spread increases late this
weekend and into next week regarding the evolution of these
features. As such, confidence drops off quite a bit after
Saturday, with the blended PoPs having trended downward a bit
compared to yesterday. In general, at least small chance PoPs
(20-30%) return across eastern Kentucky, with the peak being on
Monday. Temperatures will average in the 5 to 10 degree below
normal range into early next week, with highs mainly in the mid to
upper 50s, and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
Terminals range from MVFR to VFR at TAF issuance. Ceilings are
expected to lower from the southwest through the night as the
next storm system moves in. Rain chances also return area-wide
between 4 and 9Z, becoming widespread thereafter. The combination
of rain, low clouds and fog are expected to bring widespread MVFR
conditions with occasional IFR possible at times through the
daylight hours on Wednesday. Winds will be east to northeast at 10
kts or less through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 9:38 PM EDT---------------
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