PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 5:20 AM CDT607
FXUS63 KPAH 271020
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
520 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Steady rainfall this morning will taper off to lingering
showers by the afternoon. Isolated rain showers and drizzle
will remain possible during a lull Monday night into Tuesday.
- A prolong period of steady rain will impact the entire region
late Tuesday through all of Wednesday. Additional rainfall
between 1.0 to 2.5 inches is expected.
- Temperatures will remain seasonably cool through the entire
week. Wednesday will be the coldest day with high temperatures
struggling to reach the upper 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
A 500 mb vort max is located over the FA, providing lift for
stratiform bands of rain that will gradually move east later this
morning with weak sfc low pressure along the Gulf coast. Areas
of rain will likely linger over the Kentucky Pennyrile before
tapering off to scattered rain showers across the entire FA.
Drier air will eventually advect in with easterly winds as a
1035 mb sfc high pressure over Quebec helps to suppress moisture
to the south. A few isolated rain showers will remain possible
Monday night into Tuesday, but some of this may simply be
drizzle due to low-level stratus. Temperatures will be
seasonably cool with highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid
40s to near 50.
Another prolonged period of stratiform rain remains on track
for late Tuesday through all of Wednesday. The synoptic setup
is quite impressive as there is good model agreement with a
amplified 500 mb longwave trough developing into a closed low in
the vicinity of the FA by Wednesday morning. Very robust lift
will be combined with upper level divergence associated with the
left exit region of a jet max. The dynamics translate to
cyclogenesis at the sfc with MSLP falling to around 1000 mb in
either southeast Missouri or northwest Tennessee. Despite the
slight differences in placement, heavy rainfall and breezy
conditions are probable before rain tapers off to lingering
showers by Thursday. Additional rainfall is progged between 1.0
to 2.5 inches.
As the 500 mb energy transverses east on Thursday, a triple phase
occurs with northern stream energy over the Great Lakes and Dakota,
supporting a broad trough to remain in place over the eastern
CONUS through next weekend. The NBM has slight PoPs progged
Saturday night into Sunday when model guidance shows a shortwave
moving through. Both the GFS and ECMWF are pretty meager with
the moisture return, only supporting some scattered light rain
showers.
The coldest high temperatures are progged by the NBM on Wednesday
with highs only in the mid 50s, gradually moderating back into the
low 60s by Saturday. Meanwhile, low temperatures in the mid to upper
30s still remain progged for Friday morning and Saturday
morning, but the coldest 850 mb temps below 0c has trended
slightly more northeast over the Ohio Valley. A residual
pressure gradient combined with some scattered cloud cover may
be enough to inhibit the boundary layer from completely
decoupling that would support lows closer to the NBM 50th
percentile near freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Steadier rain impacting mainly the northern terminals will
taper off to lingering showers across the entire region later
this morning. MVFR cigs will lower to IFR tonight with areas of
drizzle. Patchy fog is also possible, especially at terminals
KCGI and KPAH. Winds will be light out of the east between 4-7
kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 5:20 AM CDT---------------
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