JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 8:05 AM EDT427
FXUS63 KJKL 281205 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances and unsettled weather linger for much of the week
as a couple of surface lows affect eastern Kentucky.
- Frost is possible Friday night into Saturday morning, mainly
just in the western valleys.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a touch-up to the PoPs per radar and CAMs guidance in
the near term. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky still between two main sfc
features - strong high pressure to the northeast, holding on to
the eastern spine of the Appalachians, and low pressure
transferring from the Tennessee Valley east to offshore of the
Southeast Coast. This has left plenty of clouds - some low - over
the JKl CWA along with a slow drying trend to the areas of rain
that have mostly lifted out of the Cumberland Valley. As such,
readings do not exhibit much terrain difference - generally
running in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
near temperatures also in the upper 40s to lower 50s, amid light
easterly winds.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
fairly good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict one area of lower heights at 5h
weakening and departing eastern Tennessee as a deeper trough is
formed later today in the Southern Plains due to mid-level energy
pouring down the front range of the Rockies. This process also
helps to set up a downstream rex block with ridging over northeast
Canada north of renewed troughing that will retrograde back into
Pennsylvania by 00Z Wednesday. The northeast closed low trough
continues to work westward along the Great Lakes tonight
interacting and being drawn toward the stronger Plains trough - by
then crossing quickly into the western Tennessee Valley and
northern portion of the Deep South. This process culminates in a
phasing that drastically deepens the closed low trough to our
southwest on Wednesday which leaves one imagining 'what if we
would have seen such a pattern in late December or January'. The
surprisingly small spread among the models despite such dynamism
continued to support the NBM as the starting point of the forecast
grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly to include some of
the PoP details from the latest CAMs consensus guidance through
Wednesday.
Sensible weather features cool and damp weather today into
Wednesday. Lingering, mainly light, rain and plenty of clouds
will keep temperatures stuck in the 50s for most places today and
readings falling to the mid 40s tonight in the wake of the
departing sfc reflection of the weakening southeastern trough.
Attention then quickly turns to the rapidly deepening sfc low
moving this way from the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley by early
Wednesday with increasingly breezy conditions and renewed rain
showers - potentially heavy for a time in the southern parts of
Kentucky. Easterly flow will lock in chilly conditions as well
with readings staying in the lower 50s south and closer to 50
degrees in the north making for a raw and unseasonably blustery
afternoon. Again to think of what a pattern like this this could
bring deeper in the cold season. At this point, the dry weather of
late precludes flooding concerns outside of localized training
but we do note that WPC has placed the entire area in a marginal
for excessive rainfall on Wednesday. The full run of the
deterministic HRRR has basin average total rainfall runs from a
half an inch north to as much as 1.5 inches in the southwest
through 06Z Thursday. Later forecast shifts will continue to
evaluate the potential need for any headlines with this system.
The changes to the NBM starting point were again primarily
focused on adding in more details for the PoPs from the latest
CAMs consensus through the period. Given very moist environment
there was not much need to adjust the T or Td grids from the NBM.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
The main change to the extended forecast this morning were to add
more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures late in the
week and starting next week. Otherwise, the most dynamic portion
of the extended will be through the end of this work week with
weaker features affecting the area over the weekend and to start
next week - though definitely on the cool side of normal. In fact,
some novelty flurries could fall in the highest elevations
thursday night or perhaps at other times this weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Wednesday, will likely see steady rain as a potent upper level trough
and subsequent low pressure continues its progression southeast
through Tennessee. The low will begin departing the area (moving
northeast) out of East Tennessee during the overnight Wednesday, and
through the day Thursday. Rain showers will continue across Eastern
Kentucky Thursday while the low puts Kentucky and surrounding areas
in its rear mirror. While QPF has trended down some with the latest
model runs, a general 1.5-2.0 inches of rain is possible with
locally higher amounts, Wednesday through Thursday.
Friday, quasi-zonal flow remains in the wake of the system that
exited to the Northeast. However, the next system begins to come out
of the Northern Plains through the day Friday, arriving late
Saturday into Sunday. There is some model spread at this time in the
lows placement however beyond the Wednesay-Thursday system a late
Saturday-Sunday system looks to be the next best chance of
precipitation.
Through the extended period, afternoon temperatures will generally
be in the low to mid 50s. Thursday will be the coolest with highs in
the upper 40s nearing 50 in places. This is due to the anticipated
rain, and cold air advection on the back end of the low. Lows will
likely be in the low to mid 40s Wednesday night, and in the mid to
upper 30s Thursday through Monday night. Frost will be possible
Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time frost is not
expected to be as widespread as the frost earlier this week. The
current plan among surrounding NWS offices is to mark November 1st
as the end of the growing season.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A combination of VFR to IFR conditions are noted across the area
at TAF issuance as light to moderate rain continues over northeast
parts of the area ahead of a weakening upper level low and
departing sfc low. Ceilings for most places will drop to MVFR and
then IFR for a time this morning as the system passes through.
However, once the low's remnants move off to the northeast, rain
will dissipate and a gradual improvement to MVFR and VFR is
forecast during the midday hours only for the next round of rain
and lowering CIGs to move into the area before dawn Wednesday.
Winds will be light, variable to easterly, at less than 10 kts
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 8:05 AM EDT---------------
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