CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:03 PM EDT269
FXUS61 KCLE 281903
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently resides over eastern Canada and will
build off to the east this evening. On Wednesday, a low
pressure system will move into the region from the southwest and
move northeast towards New England by the end of the week. Lake
effect rain showers will persist across the primary snow belt
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging is currently located across eastern Canada this
evening and will begin to build off to the east into eastern Quebec
by midday Wednesday. Concurrently, an upper level trough will begin
to deepen into the mid Mississippi Valley and will eventually form a
cut off low that will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by
Wednesday. There will be a fairly potent jet streak along the
southern periphery of this cut off low as it moves northeastward
through the middle of the week. Down at the surface, a low pressure
system will form in conjunction with the upper level cut off low in
the mid Mississippi Valley early on Wednesday. There will be plenty
of southerly moisture advection and isentropic lift to form a large
precipitation shield to the north and east of the low that will
overcome the region late on Wednesday. This moisture advection will
have to overcome the dry air that will be in place due to easterly
flow across the region from this afternoon/evening. Though it should
effectively wet bulb down through the column by late Wednesday.
Another couple of notes about this system is that it has been
trending slower over the past few model runs. It hasn't been
significantly slower, but enough to mention it. The other note is
that the low has been trending with a more easterly track as well
before it makes its northeastward turn. Will need to keep tabs on
this as it may impact the QPF as the system moves through.
Temperatures in the near term will stay with a similar trend we've
seen over the past few days with overnight lows tonight down into
the mid to low 30s with areas near the lakeshore staying in the
upper 30s. For Wednesday, highs will be in the mid 50s with
overnight lows a little bit milder in the low 40s due to the influx
of cloud cover from the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low will be moving northeast along the Appalachian
Mountains through the day on Thursday into Friday before pushing off
into eastern Canada by late Friday. The bulk of the precipitation
will fall during this time period and since the region will be on
the north and west side of the low, expect the precipitation to fall
as stratiform rain. Currently, the QPF through Friday morning is
around 0.20-0.40" for the I-75 corridor and increasing moving
eastward. From the I-71 corridor eastward, over an inch of rain is
expected and within the primary snow belt, around an inch and a half
of rain is expected. Now, with the caveats mentioned in the near
term with how the system is trending, this may impact the current
QPF totals.
As the low moves off to the northeast, west-to-northwesterly flow
will take hold across the region by midday Friday. This, along with
850 temperatures around 0C to -2C and lake temperatures in the mid
50s, will allow for a sufficient enough environment for lake effect
showers to develop across the primary snow belt. Areas from
Cleveland east through Erie, PA could see periodic showers
throughout the day on Friday accompanied by winds gusting from 20-30
mph will make for an unpleasant evening to end the month of October
for those in that area. Elsewhere outside the snow belt should stay
dry after the low moves off, though will see similar gusty winds.
Winds should start to subside as we move into the weekend.
Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be similar with highs in
the mid 50s and overnight lows down into the mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The lake effect showers in the snow belt will persist through much
of the weekend as the mean low-level flow won't vary much. A ridge
will attempt to build south of the region on Sunday, though model
guidance at this point starts to differ with their outcomes.
Depending on the strength of the ridge and its placement will
determine when the lake effect showers end or if they continue to
some degree into early next week. Similarly, with respect to model
discrepancies, early next week an upper level trough will move out
of Canada with the potential to move a clipper system across the
region for another round of precipitation. Some models depict this
as being a stronger trough than others, so will need to revisit this
as we move into next week. Temperatures for the weekend and early
next week look to stay around normal for both the highs and
overnight lows.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The airspace remains on the southwest side of high pressure
centered over eastern Canada. This system will keep a low
pressure system to the southwest for most of the TAF period.
With the high in control, expecting dry and clear conditions.
The pressure gradient across the region will result in easterly
winds with intermittent gusts of 20-25 kts. The low will
approach from the southwest on Wednesday and high level clouds
will push north into the area. By the end of the 30 hour TAF for
KCLE, some low VFR ceilings will spread into the area ahead of
rain that will begin Wednesday evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in widespread periods of rain
Wednesday evening through Thursday night. Non-VFR will linger
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Friday through
the weekend with lake effect clouds and rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
East-northeast flow is expected on Lake Erie through Thursday
morning as we remain sandwiched between high pressure over
Quebec and a developing low pressure over the southern portion
of the CONUS. Winds of 15 to 25 knots will likely weaken to
around 10 to 15 knots after daybreak before strengthening again
to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon through tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Erie for
this period of stronger winds. Winds gradually weaken to 15 to
20 knots late tonight into early Wednesday.
The aforementioned low is expected to develop to around 1000 mb
as it moves northeast towards the mid-Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday and then possibly deepening to sub-1000mb as it
continues towards just south of Lake Erie by Thursday. As the
low approaches, east-northeast winds should strengthen to 20-25
knots by Wednesday night, and then 25-30 knots on Thursday.
Compared to previous forecasts, model guidance has trended
towards a weaker low, and thus a much lower chance of gale-force
winds (so gales are no longer in the official forecast right
now). As the low continues northeastward towards Ontario/Quebec,
winds become northwest Thursday night into Friday morning and
then westerly Friday afternoon through Saturday. These winds
are mostly likely to be around 25-30 knots late Thursday night
through early Friday night before dissipating thereafter.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>146.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:03 PM EDT---------------
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