IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 2:52 AM EDT005
FXUS63 KIWX 240652
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
252 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another cold night is expected tonight with lows everywhere in
the low 30s.
- Temperatures moderate slightly over the weekend but remain cool.
- The next chance of rain arrives during the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Blanket of lake effect clouds holding firm generally along/north of
US-30 as expected and keeping temps generally at or above 40 there
while temps in the SW drop into the low 30s under clear skies. This
trend will likely continue through the morning hours given
persistent, cool NW flow over the still very warm waters of Lake
Michigan. Near surface flow does begin to back slightly by sunrise
but forecast soundings show moisture-laden inversion around 5 kft
holding firm through at least sunrise and likely a while beyond.
Therefore, current frost/freeze headlines should continue to play
out well with just a few minor variations in expected temps on the
borders based on exact cloud cover. No changes to headlines
necessary at this point. Clouds should slowly scatter through the
day as winds slowly back and dry air advection takes an increasing
toll. Our far N/NE counties may not entirely scatter out until
almost sunset though. This will keep highs near 50F there while
southern zones make a run at upper 50s.
No major changes to the forecast for tonight. The night should at
least start with mostly clear skies and light winds which will allow
for quick and efficient radiational cooling. Low 30s still
anticipated everywhere. Additional freeze headlines for IN/OH may be
necessary for tonight if the growing season is not declared over
based on temps this morning. Given current headlines and uncertainty
with exactly how widespread freezing temps will be this morning,
prefer to let day shift make the final call on if the growing season
will officially end or if one more night of freeze headlines are
warranted. (The growing season has already been declared over for
all Michigan counties.)
Saturday will feature dry conditions with light WAA pushing highs
into the mid/upper 50s for the entire area. Lows Sat night may touch
the mid 30s in our NE half but in all likelihood the growing season
will be declared over by then. A fairly complicated upper air
pattern then develops with troughs over the Southern Plains and
Quebec with a third shortwave likely diving through the Great Lakes.
Models continue to struggle with how this complex pattern will
evolve early next week. There are some chances for precip by Mon and
especially Tue but confidence is very low and did not deviate far
from NBM initialization. High temps remain on the cool side of climo
with generally mid 50s. Lows hover around 40F through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
VFR lake effect cloudiness continues with both KFWA/KSBN on the
edge of a 5-6k foot deck. Inversion heights should be lowering
through the morning, but enough low level dry air advection
should assure bases remain VFR this morning. By this afternoon,
low cloud cover should become more cellular in nature as low
level winds slacken with approach of low level anticyclone.
Light and variable winds this morning should become northwest 5
to 10 knots today with upstream proximity of the low level ridge
axis. Light and variable winds return this evening with some sct
VFR cu possible at KSBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ008-009-012-014-017-018-116-203-216.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ004-005-015-
016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 2:52 AM EDT---------------
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