IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 9:02 PM EDT216
FXUS63 KIND 250102
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
902 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic chances for rain Sunday through the middle of next week
with the highest chances being Tuesday into Wednesday
- Temperatures to remain near to below normal this weekend into
next week
- Mostly dry and cool conditions expected for Halloween
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
No significant changes made to the forecast with the evening update.
High cirrus continues to stream in ahead of a system taking shape
over the southern Plains. Clouds will gradually increase in coverage
through the night, which should inhibit radiative cooling allowing
temps to level off somewhat. Thinner clouds cover to the north and
east will allow for a gradient in low temps with the coldest
locations in that direction. Cloud cover is expected to become a
thick overcast during the day on Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
In the wake of the deep longwave trough along the eastern
CONUS, below normal temperatures will continue through Saturday
across central Indiana. This will be a result of both increasing
high cloud cover ahead of the slow moving southern rockies
shortwave trough that will gradually move into the southern plains
and remnant cool airmass/surface high pressure that will move
over and just east central Indiana.
Ahead of the shortwave trough over the southern plains, a few light
showers aided by mid level waa area expected to be over IL. These
showers will make a valiant attempt to make into the southern
portions of the forecast area during the day Saturday. However a
very dry airmass between the surface and about 10kft should preclude
any precip reaching the ground with virga as a result. Therefore
have continued the mostly cloudy forecast with no pops.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
The aforementioned shortwave trough over the southern plains on
Saturday will continue to slowly trudge eastward into the SE CONUS
through Monday. Forecast soundings suggest that sufficient top down
saturation will occur that by Sunday the expectation is for
scattered light showers to develop along the northern periphery of
the associated mid level deformation zone across southern portions
of the forecast area. Although the confidence on exact location is
still uncertain, with the development of a upper high over the Great
Lakes, there is likely to be a fairly narrow transition zone to
isolated showers over the central portions of the forecast area and
dry conditions over the north for both Sunday and Monday.
Attention then turns to the next and stronger storm system which
will move into the Pac West/Rockies this weekend and into the Plains
on Monday. By late October standards, a strong W-NW mid-upper level
jet /100 kts at 500 mb and 140 kts at 300 mb/ over the Rockies will
aid in the development of a lee trough/low over the high plains by
late Sunday. In addition, the combination of strong/channeled flow
will support significant mid level positive vorticity generation on
the northern periphery of the mid level jet as it edges into the
plains by Monday. There is excellent agreement among the GFS and
Euro deterministic and ensembles for the fairly rapid
intensification of a deep layer cyclone over the MS valley into the
SE CONUS during Tue-Wed time period. The only major uncertainty in
the evolution beyond this time frame will be the interaction of this
system with the preexisting eastern CONUS long wave trough.
The net result will be a return to much cooler than normal and
wetter weather likely for Central Indiana Tue-Wed with highs mainly
in the low-mid 50s and lows in the 40s. In addition, depending on
the eventual track of the surface low/mid level deformation zone,
some areas of central Indiana may see much needed rainfall amounts
as well as moderately strong winds. Although the timing of the
eventual progression of this system, related to the phasing with the
eastern CONUS longwave remains uncertain, the chances appear
relatively high that drier weather will move into the region just in
time for Halloween, with the hope that the atmosphere doesn't
have any tricks up its sleeve.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions through the period.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight, with perhaps a
dominant northeasterly component at times under 5kt. Winds increase
from the east after sunrise Saturday while remaining under 10kt.
High cirrus has been gradually increasing today ahead of a storm
system emerging into the Great Plains. Expect ceilings to gradually
thicken and lower with time. Ceilings may lower to around 6000ft agl
by later Saturday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 9:02 PM EDT---------------
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