IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 12:57 PM EDT601
FXUS63 KIWX 211657
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1257 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and chances for isolated storms this
afternoon. Small hail and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will
be possible with more robust showers.
- Lake enhanced showers especially north of the Michigan line
may be briefly heavy tonight into Wednesday.
- Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph at times Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds
will be stronger near Lake Michigan.
- Very cold Thursday night and Friday night with frost likely.
Freezing temperatures are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
An upper low with anomalously chilly air will bring showers and
unseasonably cold air to the area through the rest of the week.
Frost and freezing temperatures are likely at times from
Wednesday night through the end of the week. At this time, the
coldest nights include Thursday night and Friday night when
frost is likely and freezing temperatures are possible. At the
moment, headlines are not planned; however, they will likely be
added during subsequent shifts. This will a more prolonged
event with highs only in the 50s expected from Wednesday through
Saturday. The GFS 850 mb anomaly is a little farther south than
the 20/00Z run. Otherwise, thermal fields have been consistent
favoring high confidence in this cold event occurring. Otherwise,
temperatures should warm a little above normal early next week
with highs 60 to 65. Other then the lake showers, the very dry
pattern will continue. It does not appear at this time there
will be enough rain to improve the extreme drought that has
developed over northern Indiana and northwest Ohio (see the
October 16 U.S. Drought Monitor).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
Strong vort lobe and associated secondary cold front will swing
through northern IN this afternoon with scattered showers and
perhaps an isolated storm or two. Gusty west winds and small
hail may accompany more robust showers. It will be breezy and
VFR otherwise into early this evening.
Lake effect rain showers will impact KSBN tonight into tomorrow
on the southern fringes of a large low pressure system. Cigs
should lower into MVFR here. Lower rain chances away from the
lake at KFWA with cigs potentially lowering into high MVFR for a
time later tonight into Wednesday morning. Breezy west winds
linger otherwise.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
046.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 12:57 PM EDT---------------
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