PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 2:27 AM CDT029
FXUS63 KPAH 220727
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon
with RH values mixing down between 20 and 30% along with wind
gusts of 15 to 25 mph.
- Frost development is possible Thursday morning and especially
Friday morning across the north.
- Small rain chances return Friday into Saturday (mainly west).
Higher rain chances may impact much of the region Sunday and
again Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Surface low pressure will depart the Great Lakes region today. The
pressure gradient will remain fairly tight across our region between
the low to our northeast and high pressure centered across Arkansas.
Mixing depth won't be as deep as yesterday so wind gusts won't be as
strong, but still should see some 20-25 mph gusts mixed down.
Dewpoints will likely mix down towards the lower end of guidance
today which will result in RH's falling into the 20-30% range again
this afternoon. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are once
again expected.
There remains a concern for some frost development across mainly
northern portions of the region both Thursday and especially Friday
morning. The surface high is centered more overhead southwest
Indiana Thursday night, providing a more ideal radiational cooling
setup for up there and into the Wabash Valley area. Bit more
borderline for Thursday morning, but there's enough concern for at
least some frost development that went ahead and issued a Frost
Advisory for areas primarily along and north of I-64.
An upper level shortwave will slowly move east from the Southern
Plains on Saturday into the OH/TN valley's on Sunday. Most guidance
depicts the wave weakens and opens up as it approaches our area
though. Can't rule out some scattered showers Friday and Saturday
across southeast MO or southwest IL, but most of this period looks
dry now. There remains some uncertainty on how widespread rain will
be on Sunday, given the upper level support appears to be weakening
with time. It looks like this occurs as a deeper trough develops
across the Western U.S. and eventually ejects into the Central CONUS
Monday into Tuesday. Ensembles are varied on how to handle this
trough, but the favored solution seems to be a deeper trough
developing across the Ohio Valley mid next week. Monday night into
Tuesday appear to be the most favorable period for the highest rain
chances.
Temperatures will remain somewhat below normal through much of the
period and may trend even chillier mid next week when highs in the
50s are possible.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025
The gradient between surface high pressure to the south and low
pressure to the north will remain tight thru this package as
both surface centers track eastward. Given the dry column
overtop the flight forecast terminals, deep mixing is
anticipated again tmrw so a good/stiff west to northwest wind
can be expected, and will include some gustiness again as well.
A few high clouds may traverse the sky toward the end of the
planning phase of the forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ075>078-
082-083.
MO...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /4 AM EDT/ to 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/
Thursday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...Previous Fcter
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 2:27 AM CDT---------------
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