IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 7:36 PM EDT827
FXUS63 KIND 212336
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
736 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered light showers and stronger wind gusts this afternoon
into the early evening
- Multiple nights of sub-freezing temperatures possible Thu-Sat with
a widespread freeze likely Thu night
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
Synoptically, the Midwest weather is currently being dictated by a
negatively tilted trough and broad upper low north of the Great
Lakes. Initially, this led to our gusty showers last night along a
cold front. Now a new confluence band on the south side of the low
had led to additional convective showers, primarily over northern
portions of the region. Given convective tops around 14kft, showers
should generally remain weak, however a deep dry layer beneath the
LCL may allow for sporatic gusts to 40kts within showers. Freezing
levels just below convective tops may allow for very isolated
lightning, but 95-99% of there showers should remain lightning free.
These low freezing level may also allow for pea size hail within
strongest showers.
The pressure gradient on the south side of the low will remain
strong overnight, but a developing inversion will eventually subdue
mixing with only sporatic gusts are 2AM tonight. Still, winds should
remain consistent between 10-15kt out of the west throughout the
night. This should keep temperatures from bottoming out overnight,
with most areas staying at or above 40.
As the inversion weakens tomorrow morning, gusts are likely to
return topping out around 30kt. There will likely be some passing
high clouds will still some broad rising motion near the low, but
skies should generally remain mostly sunny.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
Wednesday Night Through Saturday.
Main focus for the long term period will be on the frost/freeze
potential over a 3 day period from Wednesday night through Friday
night. Synoptically, a broad and seasonably strong upper level low
will continue to spin across the Great Lakes region with continued
westerly to northwesterly flow. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the mid 30s Wednesday night but winds should remain elevated
enough to limit widespread frost coverage. Winds may drop to near
calm towards daybreak, especially across southern Indiana which will
allow for at least patchy frost.
Pressure gradients drop off Thursday night near the surface with
broad but weak subsidence across central Indiana which will create
the coolest temperatures of the week. Confidence continues to
increase in sub-freezing temperatures for much of central Indiana,
especially across the western and northern portions of the forecast
area. Some highly sheltered areas could see a hard freeze of 28, but
that is on the lower end of the model spread. Highly urban areas
such as Indianapolis and Bloomington may remain just above freezing,
but even towards the suburbs sub-freezing temperatures are likely.
Another cool night is expected for Friday night but winds will
gradually begin to pick up again as the high pressure moves east and
pressure gradients begin to increase again. Moisture advection aloft
will bring increasing cloud cover from southwest to northeast
through the night ahead of low chances for rain as another low
pressure system across the Southern Plains gradually moves to the
east. Coolest temperatures will be across the eastern counties where
winds will be lighter and the cloud cover will arrive latest.
Sunday Through Tuesday.
Forecast confidence begins to decrease into early next week as
models begin to differ on the evolution of the early weekend system
and the development of another system likely to develop later into
the week. Looking at the different deterministic solutions for
Tuesday night the upper level low could be anywhere from the Rockies
to Minnesota to the Southern Plains. Thus confidence is low and
looking at ensemble member low locations further highlights the
significant uncertainty. Where we do have some confidence is cooler
temperatures look likely for much of next week along with the
potential for rainfall. Details such as amounts and timing will
begin to become more clear as we move later into the week.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
Impacts:
- Wind gusts between 20-25kt possible overnight, up to 30kt
Wednesday.
Discussion:
Broad low pressure sits over the Great Lakes with a large area of
gusty winds and cloud cover wrapped around it. Across Indiana, a
general west to slightly west-northwesterly wind will prevail.
Speeds are expected to range from 15-20kt with gusts between 20-30kt
during the day Wednesday. Winds are expected to diminish Wednesday
evening but not go completely calm.
A thick stratocumulus deck will stretch from LAF to IND northward,
becoming more scattered with southward extent. A period of clearing
is possible tonight for HUF and BMG before some clouds redevelop
after sunrise. All terminals are expected to see improvement in sky
cover by Wednesday night. In terms of ceiling height, between 6000-
9000ft agl at the beginning of the TAF period decreasing overnight
to 4000-6000ft. Some near-MVFR ceilings are possible further north,
with the best chance being at LAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 7:36 PM EDT---------------
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