CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 8:06 AM EDT345
FXUS61 KCLE 191206
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
806 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes region today while
dragging a cold front east across the local area. A ridge of high
pressure briefly builds across the region Monday before another
potent low pressure system enters the Great Lakes region on Tuesday.
This low will linger across the region through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Synoptic picture remains unchanged as surface low pressure lifts
north from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes
region this morning. The low will drag a cold front east across the
local area through tonight. A narrow ridge of high pressure will
build east across the region Sunday night into Monday. Primary
concerns with this low pressure system continue to be gusty winds,
widespread beneficial rainfall, and isolated thunderstorms.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 12 PM this afternoon for
much of the western two-thirds of the forecast area. Southerly wind
gusts are expected to peak between 45 to 50 MPH in the advisory area
as a strong low-level jet (LLJ) of 50-60 knots moves overhead. The
LLJ should weaken through midday as it pushes east towards extreme
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where there is no Wind
Advisory in effect. However, still expect wind gusts 35 to 40 MPH
possible outside of the advisory through late this morning. The cold
front will swing east across the local area this afternoon allowing
for winds to turn westerly. Westerly wind gusts remain elevated 25-
30 MPH given the cold air advection regime behind the front before
diminishing as the aforementioned ridge builds across the area.
Rain chances will continue to increase from west to east early this
morning through early this afternoon along and ahead of the cold
front. Some isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the cold
front as it pushes into the eastern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. Severe thunderstorm threat remains minimal given limited
instability though any convection that occurs may bring down some
isolated sub-severe wind gusts. Overall QPF amounts will range
between 0.25 to 0.75 inches with pockets of up to 1.00 inch possible
across eastern zones in any organized convection that develops. No
concern for flooding given the ongoing widespread drought.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will largely exit to the east
with the cold front tonight. Wrap around moisture will keep lake
enhanced showers in place across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania into the late morning hours on Monday before the ridge
becomes established overhead.
Variable high temperatures today as the front and rain showers push
east with highs in the upper 60s across the western half of the CWA
and lower 70s across the eastern half of the CWA. Overnight lows
will drop into the low to mid 40s tonight. Cooler on Monday with
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Brief window of dry weather will end on Tuesday as another potent
upper level low moves into the Great Lakes region. At the surface,
low pressure will drag a cold front east across northern Ohio during
the day on Tuesday. Areawide rain showers are expected with the
passage of the cold front Tuesday before showers become confined to
the the traditional Snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania by Tuesday evening. As the upper level low remains
parked overhead the Great Lakes region lake enhanced rain showers
will continue into the long term forecast period.
High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday ahead of
the cold front will fall into the low 50s by Wednesday. Overnight
lows through the short term will remain in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake enhanced rain showers will continue through the long term
period as the stubborn upper level trough persists across the
region. There continues to be a signal for a drier trend Friday as a
surface high builds into the region allowing for the upper trough to
gradually lift north. For now maintained slight chance to chance
PoPs confined to the Snowbelt on Friday. Rain chances outside of the
Snowbelt may return on Saturday though the details remain murky.
Continued chilly conditions with highs in the mid 50s each day and
overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Chilliest night will be
Thursday night as high pressure will allow for light winds and
gradually clearing of any lingering cloud cover across Central Ohio.
Will need to monitor for any frost/freeze potential.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Low pressure is located over Lake Huron this morning with a cold
front extending south to near the Indiana/Ohio state line at
12Z. Rain is spreading eastward ahead of the cold front with
plenty of wrap around showers on the back side of the system.
Once the rain begins today, occasional showers will continue
into this evening before ending from west to east. Ceilings and
visibilites will lower to MVFR after the rain begins and some
pockets of IFR visibilities can also be expected. We are
starting to see a narrow band of more intense showers that may
expand to the north and east. A few thunderstorms could develop
along this feature but confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs at this time.
Ahead of the rain, southerly winds are gusting to between 30-40
knots and may peak as the leading edge of showers arrive. A very
strong low level jet of 50-60 knots is overhead this morning and
will weaken while shifting east through 18Z. Winds will
gradually shift to the west with the cold front and eventually
northwest in the wake of it.
Locations in north central and northeast Ohio may see a window
of IFR ceilings behind the front this evening. Conditions begin
to improve from west to east after 03Z.
Outlook...Periods of rain showers with non-VFR are expected
Sunday night into Monday, then again Tuesday and Wednesday and
continuing downwind of the lake on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will increase on Lake Erie abruptly this morning as a strong
50-60 knot low level jet moves over the lake while low pressure is
deepening as it tracks northeast across lower Michigan. Despite the
strong wind field, it is expected that sustained winds will only
increase to around 30 knots today given limited mixing depths. Winds
will decrease slightly this afternoon as the low level jet weakens
but will strengthen again tonight in the wake of a trough/cold front
with northwest winds increasing to 30 knots. It was determined that
any appreciable window of gale force winds was too brief to warrant
a gale warning. There may be an hour or two immediately behind the
trough this evening where winds get close to gale force but the
general character for the day will be a high end Small Craft
Advisory. With winds shifting from southerly to westerly, we will
see water levels fall on the western basin of Lake Erie by about a
foot. That is not enough to reach low water conditions but will be
something to monitor through the day. Small Craft Advisory for the
nearshore waters will be in effect until 5 AM west of the Lake Erie
Islands, until 5 PM Monday from the Islands to Willowick, and until
11 PM Monday evening east of Willowick as waves take longer to
subside.
While a ridge builds north up the Ohio Valley on Monday, it will
quickly be replaced by another broad area of low pressure moving
into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. Southwest winds increase to
20-30 knots on Tuesday, then 30 knots through Wednesday night,
behind the passage of a series of cold fronts. Another
prolonged stretch of Small Craft conditions are expected all the way
through Thursday. The wind direction may be more favorable with
southwesterly winds to approach critically low water levels on the
western basin of Lake Erie on Tuesday afternoon. Ridging will
finally build in from the Upper Midwest on Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for OHZ003-006>013-017>021-
027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144>146.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 8:06 AM EDT---------------
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