Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1473 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 20%]251
ACUS11 KWNS 291643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291642
INZ000-ILZ000-291745-
Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...portions of central IL into central IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291642Z - 291745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over
the next couple of hours. Locally damaging gusts are possible. Watch
issuance is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima is evident in
water vapor imagery from near St. Louis into central IL. An isolated
thunderstorm has developed over central IL on the leading edge of
this vorticity max and along the southern fringe of modest vertical
shear. A very moist and modestly unstable airmass resides downstream
from this feature, and may support a couple of loosely organized
cells through the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts may accompany
this activity given increasing destabilization into the afternoon,
and PW values greater than 1.75 inches enhancing wet microburst
potential. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected
given the overall marginal environment. However, trends will
continue to be monitored, especially as additional storm development
is possible later this afternoon along the southeast-advancing cold
front currently draped across northern IL.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39968921 40298819 40298678 40148585 39878533 39468537
39088584 38938704 38788793 38748899 38878972 39338974
39618968 39968921
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1473 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 20%]---------------
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