ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 6:11 AM EDT823
FXUS61 KILN 131011
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
611 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for continued dry conditions with slightly
above normal temperatures for the first half of the working week. A
dry cold front will move through mid week, providing cooler
temperatures for the second half of the week. Our next chance for
rain looks to arrive this coming weekend, as a potent weather system
moves through the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Any early morning fog will burn off shortly after sunrise and low
level foggy stratus will clear out late morning. Scattered cumulus
develop during the early afternoon and another dry, mostly sunny, day
is in store for the region. High temperatures top out in the mid 70s
with some upper 70s sprinkled across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Continental surface high pressure moves into the western Great Lakes by
Monday night, continuing the dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
To our east, the deep low off of the Atlantic will continue to pump
moist air westward, toward eastern Ohio/ KY. As such, with calm
conditions and clear skies, patchy fog will be possible for areas
east of I-75 on Monday night, particularly the river valleys, where
moisture is even more abundant. Overnight lows fall to the upper
40s. By Tuesday, the surface high will have expanded farther into the
Great Lakes region, continuing dry conditions and mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures once again reach the mid 70s with some upper 70s
mixed in near the Ohio River.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes and extending
down through the Ohio Valley, will shift slowly east through Friday.
This will lead to dry conditions through the end of the work week.
Temperatures will start off slightly below normal mid week and then
gradually warm through the end of the week as we start to get into
return flow. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the
65 to 70 degree range, with highs on Friday in the lower 70s. The
coolest overnight lows will be Wednesday night and Thursday night as
the ridge axis shifts east across our area. Lows will be in the mid
30s to lower 40s both nights, with some frost potential,
especially across parts of our north.
Mid level short wave energy will move east across the Great Lakes
region Saturday into Sunday. In developing southerly flow ahead of
this, highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Pcpn
chances will increase later Saturday into Saturday night and
continuing into Sunday as an associated cold front moves east
through the Ohio Valley. Behind the front, highs on Sunday will be
in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KLUK has been bouncing around with river valley fog throughout the
night; any residual fog should burn off once the sun has risen.
Scattered afternoon cu develop, indicating some mechanical
turbulence possible. Winds increase slightly, out of the northeast
around 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon hours. Cannot rule out a
periodic gust to 15 knots for LCK and CMH during the afternoon hours.
Winds decrease around sunset and will be out of the north, less than
5 knots. Expecting patchy fog again, but too early to put into the
TAFs due to low confidence on timing.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 6:11 AM EDT---------------
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