IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 9:18 AM EDT190
FXUS63 KIND 021318
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
918 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with unseasonably warm afternoons through early next week
- Drought is expected to persist and worsen across central Indiana
- Next best chance for rain is Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Broad surface high pressure remains the dominant weather
feature which is providing quiet weather across the region. Deep
mixing later today, aided by ample sunshine, will once again promote
low min RH values around 30-35%. Fire concerns are still low given
weak surface flow over central Indiana. Look for highs to reach the
low-mid 80s today.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
This will keep winds out of the NE with dry air advection remaining
over the region. They synoptic scale pattern remain similar with
weak meridional flow beneath the broader upper level ridge. This
will continue the stream of upper level cirrus through the day and
into tonight. This higher coverage in cirrus dampen the diurnal
curve some, but overall conditions should remain rather unchanged.
Towards the surface, an elongated surface high over the mid-
Appalachians region will inhibit return flow ahead of the upper level
trough some, keeping dew point depressions greater than 20
throughout the day. This should also maintain the weak flow in the
950-850mb layer, inhibiting PBL mixing some. This low level source
of higher pressure will erode some late today into tonight, with
dewpoints increasing across southern IN this evening. This may allow
for a stray shower over far SW central Indiana, but coverage will
be far too sparse for any mention in the forecast at this time.
Overnight, dew points will continue to slowly increase within weak
moisture advection. This could allow for some radiational fog to
develop, primary over low lying areas late tonight into tomorrow
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A dry and warm pattern will remain in place on Friday through
Monday. Rain chances will return on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Friday through Monday...
Models continue to suggest strong ridging aloft will remain in place
over Indiana and the Ohio Valley on Friday through Sunday, with
strong subsidence in place. Forecast soundings show a dry column
through the period, so mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights
will remain in play. Highs through period will reach the middle and
upper 80s, providing an extension of summer-like weather. These
values will be about 15-20 degrees above normals.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Models suggest the upper flow becoming more southwesterly on
Tuesday before becoming zonal on Wednesday. This will allow a bit
of forcing dynamics to stream across Central Indiana each day.
Furthermore, models hint at a cold front pushing toward Indiana on
Tuesday before slowly crossing on Wednesday. Warm and moist
southerly flow within the lower levels ahead of the front will allow
for plenty of moisture to stream across Indiana, and dew points
should reach the 60s. Models suggest the mid levels will also have
sufficient moisture for precipitation and forecast soundings trend
toward saturation on Tuesday and Wednesday with pwat values over 1.5
inches. This is on days 6-7, thus confidence is low. However should
this come to pass, Tuesday and Wednesday is our next best chance for
rainfall. Cooler temperatures will also be expected in the wake of
the front on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with a strong
high pressure just to the east. Winds will remain well below 10kt
but will veer to the south this morning and eventually towards the
SW tonight into tomorrow. There will likely be passing cirrus
throughout the day with occasional mid level clouds this
afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 9:18 AM EDT---------------
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