PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 5:31 AM EDT329
FXUS61 KPBZ 290931
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
531 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through the week with high pressure in
control. Above normal temperatures will cool to more seasonable
values the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues
- Patchy fog is possible early this morning.
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure centered just north of the area over New York
will be the dominant feature, maintaining dry conditions and
above normal temperatures today. Little change in the overall
synoptic pattern favors a persistence forecast. Ensemble
guidance continues to show the potential for patchy dense fog
development this morning, with the best chances (around 40-60%)
generally north and west of Pittsburgh due to increasing cloud
coverage to the east.
Lows should bottom out in the mid to upper 50s for most, except
north of I-80 where low 50s are forecast.
Another dry and unseasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure remains in control. The only notable difference will
be an increase in cloud coverage from the southeast with
moisture extending north from Tropical Depression Nine. Highs
are thus likely to be just a touch cooler than observed
yesterday, especially south and east of Pittsburgh where cloud
cover resides for more of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm conditions continue
----------------------------------------------------------------
Any fog development is less likely overnight with increased
cloud coverage. Low temperatures will also be higher due to the
increase in clouds.
All ensembles continue to support ridging building over the
midwest to start of the week with a trend lately favoring
a stronger high which will maintain dry conditions and warmer
temperatures. Forecast cloud coverage has also decreased in the
period with the stronger high largely keeping any cloud coverage
from Humberto or Imelda to the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Prevailing dry weather with temperatures trending closer to normal
by mid to late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Temperatures are forecast to lessen to closer to normal (low/mid
70s) during the second half of the week. Models have been very
consistent for several days now in showing a broad ridge over
eastern CONUS during the period, so forecast confidence is
relatively high in a continued dry period across the region.
Temperatures will trend back up with height rises during the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The latest satellite pictures and surface observations indicate
fog has developed in the river valleys. This will continue until
mixing begins after sunrise. HLG and FKL are the most prone
airports to seeing IFR vsbys from this fog.
Otherwise, VFR is expected through the TAF period, with cirrus
increasing well to the north of the tropical low off of the SE
coast.
.OUTLOOK....
Outside of morning vly fog, VFR is expected through late week
under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 5:31 AM EDT---------------
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