NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 26, 3:00 PM GMT560
WTNT42 KNHC 261442
TCDAT2
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025
Gabrielle is a storm-force extratropical cyclone with frontal
boundaries that extend east-northeastward and southwestward from the
cyclone. The center continues moving away from the Azores, and
winds have dropped below gale-force across the islands. Recent
ASCAT passes missed the center, but winds up to 43 kt were measured
by the instrument well away from the center in the southeast
quadrant. Global models show 10-meter winds up to 55 kt in their
fields at the current time, so the initial intensity will be held
at 55 kt.
Some intensification is possible this evening, and the 06Z GFS model
indicates a sting jet could briefly cause winds up to 70-75 kt in
the western semicircle in about 6 h from now. The NHC forecast
brings Gabrielle to 60 kt in 12 h, but doesn't necessarily account
for brief stronger winds that could occur between the current time
and the 12 h point. Global models are in good agreement on steady
weakening after hour 12, and the NHC intensity forecast is based on
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. It's possible that gale force winds
near 35 kt, with higher gusts, could affect portions of the west
coast of Portugal around early Sunday.
The current motion is quickly east-northeastward, or 065/27 kt. A
turn toward the east along with a decrease in forward speed is
expected in 12-24 h. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn
southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal. This should
be followed by an even slower southeastward to southward motion
while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates near southern
Portugal and northern Morocco. The forecast track has been shifted
slightly to the northeast, or left, of the previous NHC track,
closer to the latest simple and corrected consensus models.
This is the final advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Gabrielle. Future information on marine impacts can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt. Future
information on potential land-based impacts in Portugal can be found
in products issued by the Portugal Meteorological Institute at
https://www.ipma.pt/en/index.html
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Winds across the Azores will continue to subside this afternoon.
2. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the high terrain of the
central Azores should subside this afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 40.0N 22.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0000Z 40.8N 18.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/1200Z 41.0N 13.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/0000Z 40.1N 10.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z 38.5N 8.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/0000Z 36.9N 7.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1200Z 35.6N 7.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 26, 3:00 PM GMT---------------
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